the need for adaptation

Background

In combating climate change there is a need for regional action in terms of both adaptation and mitigation.

• Adaptation – focuses of ensuring services, assets, communities, businesses, infrastructure and the economy are resilient to the realities of a changing climate.

• Mitigation – focuses on reducing the emission of greenhouse gases through energy efficiency measures, the Kyoto Protocol, regulation and control, etc. in attempt to reduce the rate of climate change.

There is considerable inertia in the earth’s climate system and we are already tied into the inevitable consequences of this through the climate changes that will occur over the next 30 to 50 years.  These changes have largely been governed by the greenhouse gas emissions that have already occurred over recent historic time and remain ongoing.  This is why adaptation is important now to provide resilience across the region to these changes.

Mitigation is also important now, but for a different reason.  To ensure that climate changes remain manageable beyond the next 50 years, there is a need for immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.  The inertia in the earth’s climate system means that the benefits of reductions will not be immediate and therefore the earlier mitigation action is taken, the earlier the benefits will be realised.  In the absence of appropriate mitigation, the earth’s climate system may accelerate towards a tipping point, beyond which changes may be irreversible.

It is critical that both adaptation and mitigation are undertaken, running in parallel.

 

Adaptation Strategies
Adaptation can cover a very broad range of activities, from undertaking research to better understand climate changes and the associated impacts, through long-term planning for changes in approach, to physical alterations ‘on-the-ground’ to buildings or infrastructure.

To help explain the different adaptation approaches that exist, the following categorisation has been produced by UKCIP.  This covers both:

• Building Adaptive Capacity (BAC); and

• Delivering Adaptation Actions (DAA).

Adaptation Type	Definition	Generic Activity
Gather and share information (BAC)	Undertaking research activities to better describe the climate risks or possible adaptation options. Collection and collation of data and monitoring the adaptation activities taking place. Activities to help raise awareness of climate risks and what can be done to manage these or adapt to climate change.	Scoping studies Technical/quantitative impact and adaptation assessments Climate scenarios development Use of risk-based appraisals to evaluate current and future climate and non-climate risks Phenology Monitoring climate impacts and learning lessons Monitoring effectiveness of adaptation and learning lessons Education and training Capacity building programmes Conferences, events and publications
Create supportive governance (BAC)	Change regulations and policy to encourage adaptation activities.	National and international regulation and statute National codes and standards, best practice guidelines National, regional and local policy and plans Resource allocation Enforcement of standards
Create supportive social structures (BAC)	Promoting awareness of adaptation options at all levels within an organisation. Working with other organisations and across sectors and communities for a holistic and integrated approach	Training and staff development programmes Senior management buy-in Identify climate change champion(s) Make the business case in all business areas Capacity building programmes Work in sectoral partnerships Work in locality-based partnerships Linked projects Work in cross-disciplinary partnerships
Accept impacts and bear the losses (DAA)	Acceptance that impacts are unavoidable and (some) losses will occur.	Accept that some habitats or species may disappear from UK Accept loss of some coastal land to sea level rise and coastal erosion Insurance companies accept some losses as part of business and set their premiums accordingly Make conscious decision to do nothing
Offset losses by spreading or sharing risks or losses (DAA)	A process whereby all impacts are not borne by one individual but are shared across organisations or activities.	Take out insurance to cover potential risks Use other financial products that layoff risk Diversify business activity, market location, etc to spread risk
Avoid or minimise negative impacts (DAA)	All activities that resulting in avoiding the negative impacts of climate change.  This includes change activity or location and technical or structural changes.	Technical or structural change Geographical change Behavioural or activity change
Exploit positive opportunities (DAA)	All activities that exploit the opportunities that climate change might provide.  Includes change activity or location.	Exploit new markets emerging as a consequence of climate change both locally and globally Cultivate new agricultural crops / develop alternative land use

 

Cost of Inaction versus Cost of Adaptation
Current weather events cause considerable economic loss due to direct damage and disruption, which in itself causes indirect damage and consequential loss.  In an average year, around £800M is paid out by insurers in weather-related claims.  In a year with exceptional events, this can rise to around £10.5B.  During the summer 2007 floods, it has been estimated that around £5B of economic damage was caused.  The principal causes of weather-related damages are subsidence, storm-damage, inland flooding and coastal flooding. 

In its publication Insuring Our Future Climate: Thinking for Tomorrow, Today the Association of British Insurers (ABI) has estimated that by the 2050s, the payouts during an average year will rise to around £2.2B and payouts during year with exceptional events will increase nearly three-fold to around £29.2B due to the effects of climate change alone (i.e. not taking into consideration other changes such as new buildings, more material possessions in homes, etc.).  The figure below illustrates this.

	(courtesy J. Milne, ABI)

This research provides, at an indicative level, the broad scale of cost of inaction against climate change for the UK, as measure by insurance payouts.

Additionally, the high profile Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Changesuggests that if no action is taken, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5%, and possibly as much as 20%, of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each year, now and in to the future.  In contrast, the cost of action (here measured through the benefits of mitigation and adaptation, rather than adaptation alone) are around 1% of global GDP each year.

The European Environment Agency has recently published a technical report entitled Climate Change: The Cost of Action and the Cost of Adaptation in which it is identified that:

adaptation has an extremely important role in reducing the economic costs of climate change; and whilst adaptation has a cost, it significantly reduces the residual costs of climate change.

All of these previous studies highlight the importance of adaptation actions now in more than offsetting the economic consequences of inaction later.

 

Adaptation Tools
To assist organisations in identifying suitable adaptation approaches, a number of adaptation tools are available.

The UKCIP Adaptation Wizard is one such tool that provides information from the latest research projects and covers a wide range of sectors.

Other industry guidance documents are also available relating to best practice in adaptation for specific sectors, such as business or flood and coastal defences.  Many of these documents focus on an ‘ABC’ approach, encouraging:

• Adaptation

• Business Continuity Plans

• Co-operation

All of these approaches are highly relevant in the Yorkshire & Humber region in adapting to the impacts from projected climate changes by the 2050s. 

Adaptation can best be achieved by linking appropriate measures into planned maintenance activities and all capital investment projects.

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