Projections of future rainfall are variable across the region, depending on the parameter considered, and differ in magnitude and trend depending on season. This means that there will be more seasonality in rainfall across the year, with more in the winter and less in other months when compared against the baseline.

Key findings are:

Average rainfall will change as follows:
Annual - up to around 6% reduction
Winter - around 12 to 17% increase
Spring - relatively changes small and variable trends
Summer - around 22 to 26% reduction
Autumn - decreases of 4 to 8%
Extreme rainfall events show variability across the region, with some locations experiencing increases of up to 10% for some extreme events, others showing similar decrease, and other exhibiting negligible change. The number of dry spells consisting of 10 consecutive days with rainfall below 0.2mm is set to markedly increase throughout the region, with most notable increases in the Yorkshire Dales.  Similar patters are projected for 20 consecutive days with rainfall below 0.2mm.  With the threshold set to 1mm of daily rainfall, the trends are similar.

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To view UKCIP02 results select from list below:

• Annual Average Rainfall
• Seasonal Average Rainfall

 

To view EARWIG results select from list below:

• Annual Average Daily Rainfall
• Seasonal Average Daily Rainfall


• 5% Annual Exceedance Probability – Rainfall Durations
• 50% Annual Exceedance Probability – Rainfall Durations


• 10% Annual Exceedance Probability – Extreme Daily Rainfall Events
• 50% Annual Exceedance Probability – Extreme Daily Rainfall Events


• Dry Spells