Yorkshire & Humber climate change adaptation

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future climate - temperature     Climate Projection Overview

  • Temperature
  • UKCIP02
  • EARWIG

Temperature

Temperatures are set to rise across the entire region for all parameters considered, including average daily values, average maximum daily values, average minimum daily values, extreme hot values and extreme cold values.

Key findings are:

  • Annual average of daily mean temperatures will rise as follows:
   
    • Annual - around 1.8 to 1.9 ºC up
  
    • Winter - around 1.3 to 1.5 ºC up
  
    • Spring - around 1.5 to 1.6 ºC up
  
    • Summer - around 2.1 to 2.5 ºC up
  
    • Autumn - around 2.0 to 2.2 ºC up
  
   
  • Average of annual maximum temperatures will rise as follows:
  
    • Annual - around 2.7 to 3.1 ºC up
  
    • Winter - around 1.2 to 1.3 ºCup
  
    • Spring - around 1.8 to 2.0 ºC up
  
    • Summer - around 2.7 to 3.1 ºCup
  
    • Autumn - around 2.6 to 3.1 ºCup
  
   
  • Average of annual minimum temperatures will rise as follows:
  
    • Annual - around 1.5 to 1.7 ºCup
  
    • Winter - around 1.5 to 1.7 ºCup
  
    • Spring - around 1.6 to 1.7 ºC up
  
    • Summer - around 1.8 to 2.1 ºCup
  
    • Autumn - around 1.7 to 2.0 ºCup
  

 

  
  • 5th percentile extreme cold temperatures (5% of days have colder temperatures than this) will increase by around 1.6 to 2.1 ºC in winter, but will still remain below freezing.
  • 5th percentile extreme hot temperatures (5% of days have hotter temperatures than this) will increase by around 2.8 to 3.2 ºC in summer, reaching values of 33.3 ºC.
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  • Annual average number of hot days (days with a maximum temperature greater than 28 ºC) will increase by up to 5.5 days, with York, Leeds/Bradford, Hull and Sheffield most affected.
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  • Heatwaves (two consecutive days with maximum daytime temperature greater than 28 ºC  and minimum nighttime temperature greater than 15 ºC) will marginally increase in the south of the region.
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