Yorkshire & Humber climate change adaptation

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recent trends in climate Baseline Climate   Recent Weather Events

  • Background
  • Met Office Baselines
  • UKCIP08 Report
  • Historic Station Data

As well as characterising the baseline climate, there are available data that can be used to identify recent historic trends in climate, as measured at various locations across the region.

In this section, we have:

  • Compared the Met Office’s 1980s baseline (as used in the Baseline Climate section of this website) against their earlier 1970s baseline to identify trends at the Met Office stations of:
    • Sheffield;
    • Cleethorpes; and
    • High Mowthorpe;
  • Analysed longer-term historic data to identify trends in key parameters from Met Office stations at:
    • Bradford; and
    • Sheffield.

This analysis yields the following main findings through comparison of the 1970s and 1980s baselines and longer-term data records:

  • A rise in temperatures;
  • Increased amount of summer sunshine hours;
  • Less rainfall annually;
  • Reduced incidents of air frost;
  • A general trend of decreasing summer rainfall but with an exceptional event identified in the Sheffield data record during summer 2007, when major flooding affected South Yorkshire and Humberside in particular.
 

 

 

Baseline data gathered from the Met Office at specific stations within the region has allowed us to depict changes between the 1961–1990 (the 1970s) baseline and 1971–2000 (the 1980s) baseline, as defined by the Met Office.

Available data provides detail on maximum and minimum temperatures; days of air frost; sunshine and rainfall.  Locations within the Yorkshire and Humber region with available data for both the 1970s and 1980s are:

  • Sheffield;
  • Cleethorpes; and
  • High Mowthorpe (near Malton, North Yorkshire).

Data are presented in tables and graphs for each of these three stations.

 

Sheffield
These averages are taken from the Sheffield station to give an indication of the recent trends in baseline climate for South Yorkshire. 

Table 1: Sheffield Averages (a) 1961-1990 (the 1970s) (b) 1971-2000 (the 1980s)

(a) Sheffield 1961-1990 Averages

 

Max Temp

Min Temp

Days of
Air Frost

Sunshine

Rainfall

Month

[deg C]

[deg C]

[days]

[hours]

[mm]

Jan

6.1

1.4

9.7

42.8

82.9

Feb

6.1

1.2

9.9

52.8

66.2

Mar

8.7

2.5

5.6

102

70.1

Apr

11.5

4.2

2

122.7

63.1

May

15.4

6.9

0.1

172.7

61.9

Jun

18.6

10.1

0

179.7

61.7

Jul

20.2

12

0

173.9

53.6

Aug

20

11.8

0

162.1

65.2

Sep

17.3

10

0

124.2

63.7

Oct

13.6

7.4

0.2

85.6

67.4

Nov

8.9

4

3.1

51.9

79.1

Dec

6.9

2.3

7.2

37.2

83.3

Year

12.8

6.2

37.9

1307.6

818.1

 

(b) Sheffield 1971-2000 Averages

 

Max Temp

Min Temp

Days of
Air Frost

Sunshine

Rainfall

Month

[deg C]

[deg C]

[days]

[hours]

[mm]

Jan

6.4

1.6

8.9

43.1

86.5

Feb

6.7

1.6

8.6

56.8

63.4

Mar

9.3

3.1

3.8

105.1

67.9

Apr

11.8

4.4

1.8

130.8

62.5

May

15.7

7

0.1

184.8

55.5

Jun

18.3

10

0

176.4

66.7

Jul

20.8

12.4

0

194.4

51

Aug

20.6

12.1

0

183.2

63.5

Sep

17.3

10

0

131.1

64.3

Oct

13.3

7.2

0.5

87.1

73.9

Nov

9.2

4.2

3.1

53.1

77.7

Dec

7.2

2.6

6.5

34.7

91.9

Year

13.1

6.4

33.2

1380.6

824.7

 

Graph 1: Sheffield Average Temperature

Sheffield Average Temperature

For both the minimum and the maximum temperatures on graph 1, there is a clear visible rise in temperature. This temperature rise can be between 0.2 ˚C and 0.5˚C with values peaking at 20.8˚C during July of the 1980s.

 

Graph 2: Sheffield Average Hours of Sunshine

Sheffield Average Hours of Sunshine

Inherently linked to the temperature increases over the two periods, are the number of sunshine hours received in Sheffield. There is a marked difference in the summer months with both July and August receiving approximately 20 hours more sunshine in the 1980s than in the 1970s. The winter months averages remain similar.

 

Graph 3: Sheffield Average Rainfall

Sheffield Average Rainfall

The rainfall statistics received from the Met Office website are more varied. Overall, there is less rain received in the 1980s than the 1970s. However, the months of January, June, October and December received an increased amount of rainfall at the station.

 

Graph 4: Sheffield Average Number of Days Air Frost

Sheffield Average Number of Days Air Frost

The number of days of air frost gives a good indication of the air temperature and the convection of heat between the air and land. The overall trend in Sheffield shows a decrease in the number of days with air frost during the winter and spring months from the 1970s to the 1980s. The summer months remain the same with no air frost days recorded.

 

 

Cleethorpes
These averages are taken from the Cleethorpes station to give an indication of the recent trends in baseline climate for North and North East Lincolnshire. 

Table 2: Cleethorpes Averages (a) 1961-1990 (the 1970s) (b) 1971-2000 (the 1980s)

(a) Cleethorpes 1961-1990 Averages

 

Max Temp

Min Temp

Days of
Air Frost

Sunshine

Rainfall

Month

[deg C]

[deg C]

[days]

[hours]

[mm]

Jan

6.5

1.2

8.7

58.9

47.9

Feb

6.7

1.4

7.8

71.8

39.6

Mar

8.9

2.5

4.3

106.6

47.8

Apr

11.1

4.5

1.5

134.7

44.4

May

14.5

6.7

0.1

198.7

46.2

Jun

17.8

9.6

0.0

190.2

46.6

Jul

19.6

11.8

0.0

187.2

40.8

Aug

19.6

12

0.0

171.4

52.1

Sep

17.7

10.3

0.0

138.9

49.3

Oct

14.3

7.5

0.2

101.7

43.6

Nov

9.5

3.8

3.0

67.5

60.3

Dec

7.4

2.2

6.5

47.7

48.1

Year

12.8

6.1

32.2

1475.4

566.7

 

(b) Cleethorpes 1971-2000 Averages

 

Max Temp

Min Temp

Days of
Air Frost

Sunshine

Rainfall

Month

[deg C]

[deg C]

[days]

[hours]

[mm]

Jan

6.9

1.6

7.7

61.1

50.7

Feb

7.3

1.7

7.1

75.7

38.3

Mar

9.5

3.1

3.3

105.4

45.6

Apr

11.4

4.6

1.6

146.1

42.4

May

14.6

6.9

0.1

201.2

43.5

Jun

17.7

9.7

0.0

183.3

50.0

Jul

20.1

12.2

0.0

200

38.4

Aug

20.2

12.2

0.0

187.9

48.7

Sep

17.7

10.4

0.0

138.6

52.1

Oct

14

7.4

0.4

104.2

46.5

Nov

9.9

4.1

2.8

69.3

57.2

Dec

7.8

2.4

6.0

49.3

52.0

Year

13.1

6.4

29

1521.9

565.4

Graph 5: Cleethorpes Average Temperature

Cleethorpes Average Temperature

As with Sheffield, graph 5 demonstrates the increase in temperature over the two periods. The annual average shows an overall increase in temperature of 0.3˚C.

 

Graph 6: Cleethorpes Average Hours of Sunshine

The hours of sunshine received by Cleethorpes, a coastal town, only varies in the summer months when May, July and August receive more sunshine in the 1980s than in the 1970s. all other months have similar figures in both sets of data and only June received less sunshine in the 1980s than in the 1970s.

 

Graph 7: Cleethorpes Average Rainfall

 Cleethorpes Average Rainfall

Rainfall is again very sporadic. There are months where more rainfall occurs than others. Annual averages show that 1mm less rainfall was recorded in the 1980s. A slightly warmer climate could be an inducer of less rainfall but with only a 1mm annual difference between the 2 data sets.

 

Graph 8: Cleethorpes Average Number of Days Air Frost

Cleethorpes Average Number of Days Air Frost

Air frost days, being an indicator of the air temperature and temperature inversions, show temperature changes. The graph above shows that there are less days of air frost in the 1980s than in the 1970s during the colder months from November to March. The summer months are unaffected by the number of days with air frost.

 

 

High Mowthorpe
These averages are taken from the High Mowthorpe station to give an indication of the recent trends in baseline climate for North Yorkshire. 

Below are the averages taken from the Met Office website for High Mowthorpe. This weather station is situated in a village near the Vale of Pickering, close to the town of Malton, North Yorkshire. This location is a good comparison to both Sheffield and Cleethorpes being rural compared to a seaside resort and an industrial city.

Table 3: High Mowthorpe Averages (a) 1961-1990 (the 1970s) (b) 1971-2000 (the 1980s)

(a) High Mowthorpe 1961-1990 Averages

 

Max Temp

Min Temp

Days of
Air Frost

Sunshine

Rainfall

Month

[deg C]

[deg C]

[days]

[hours]

[mm]

Jan

4.7

0.0

14.3

49.0

68.1

Feb

4.7

0.0

13.3

61.0

50.8

Mar

7.2

1.2

9.8

100.1

60.8

Apr

9.8

2.8

4.4

129.9

51.2

May

13.3

5.5

0.6

182

57.6

Jun

16.6

8.3

0.0

181.5

56.2

Jul

18.6

10.1

0.0

168.6

58.5

Aug

18.8

10.3

0.0

162.8

66.6

Sep

16.3

8.9

0.0

129.0

62.0

Oct

12.4

6.6

0.2

97.3

63.7

Nov

7.7

2.7

5.5

62.4

72.2

Dec

5.6

0.9

10.6

41.5

72.4

Year

11.3

4.8

58.8

1365.2

740.0

 

(b) High Mowthorpe 1971-2000 Averages

 

Max Temp

Min Temp

Days of
Air Frost

Sunshine

Rainfall

Month

[deg C]

[deg C]

[days]

[hours]

[mm]

Jan

5.1

0.3

13.1

48.4

68.7

Feb

5.4

0.5

11.6

66.1

48.1

Mar

7.8

1.8

8.0

99.8

59.2

Apr

10.0

3.1

4.0

134.4

54.8

May

13.4

5.6

0.8

186.9

52.8

Jun

16.4

8.2

0.0

173.1

62.1

Jul

19.2

10.5

0.0

179.5

53.4

Aug

19.4

10.6

0.0

173.9

56.9

Sep

16.2

9.0

0.0

130.8

61.4

Oct

12.1

6.4

0.5

100.8

68.2

Nov

8.0

3.1

4.9

62.7

68.0

Dec

6.0

1.3

9.6

41.5

75.8

Year

11.6

5.1

52.5

1397.9

729.4

 

Graph 9: High Mowthorpe Average Temperature

High Mowthorpe Average Temperature

As expected, temperatures have risen between the two time periods of the 1970s and the 1980s. Annual averages have risen by 0.3˚C overall. The summer months of July and August and the winter months from November to March see the greatest increase in temperatures.

 

Graph 10: High Mowthorpe Average Hours of Sunshine

High Mowthorpe Average Hours of Sunshine

The sunshine days in High Mowthorpe have increased between the 1970s and the 1980s with the exception of June. As with before, the summer months show a greater increase in the sunshine hours, specifically in July and August.

 

Graph 11: High Mowthorpe Average Rainfall

High Mowthorpe Average Rainfall

The rainfall statistics are as varied as those previous. Overall, it appears that less rainfall has fallen in the 1980s than the 1970s. The months of April, June, October and December received more rainfall. Annual averages show that the overall rainfall for the periods used, the 1980s received 11mm less rain that the 1970s.

 

Graph 12: High Mowthorpe Average Number of Days Air Frost

High Mowthorpe Average Number of Days Air Frost

The number of air frost days is reduced from the 1970s to the 1980s. This demonstrates warmer air temperatures in the region. The summer months are unaffected by these results.

 

 

 

UKCIP08 Report

The 11 variables listed below were used by UKCIP08 to gather information on the overall long-term climate trends in the report The Climate of the UK and Recent Trends.  Those with an asterix are comparative to the data provided by the Met Office in the Baseline Climate section:

    • Mean temperature*
    • Daily maximum temperature*
    • Daily minimum temperature*
    • Days of air frost*
    • Heating degree days
    • Cooling degree days
    • Total precipitation*
    • Days of rain ≥ -1mm
    • Sea-level pressure
    • Relative humidity
    • Wind speed at 10m

The changes in climate trends are illustrated in a number of ways ranging from maps, trend graphs and tables. From the information available in the report, it is possible to generate a general overview of changes in the baseline climate.

Temperature
For the Yorkshire and Humber region, the mean temperature between the 1970s and the 1980s increased between 0.2˚C and 0.3˚C with an increase of between 0.3˚C and 0.4˚C in urban areas. The average maximum temperature is the change between the two time periods has been recorded at 0.3˚C to 0.5˚C for inland regions and 0.1˚C to 0.3˚C at coastal and upland regions. Minimum temperature changes over the two periods are recorded between 0.1˚C and 0.3˚C for the region.

Days of Air Frost
The number of days of air frost is the number of days where the minimum temperature is less than 0.1˚C. The UKCIP08 report depicts the change in the regional averages between the 1970s and 1980s. As a whole, a reduction in the number of air frost days is recorded. The majority of the region records a reduction of 4 to 7 days with the Yorkshire Dales seeing a reduction of 2 to 4 days and Scarborough recording a greater reduction of 7 to 10 days.

Heating Degree Days
A heating degree day is described as being whenever mean temperature is below 15.5˚C. It is an indicative measure of a day when some form of heating will be required (e.g. gas-fired central heating).  It appears that the number of heating degree days has decreased between the 1970s and the 1980s. The Yorkshire and Humber region has seen a number of changes. The coastal region has seen a reduction in the number of heating degree days of between 3 and 4 days. The central lowland area of the region reduction in the number of days is less at 2 to 3 days.

Cooling Degree Days
A cooling degree day assumes that the mean temperature is greater than 22˚C.  It is an indicative measure of a day when some form of cooling will be required (e.g. air conditioning).  As expected, the number of cooling degree days has increased throughout the majority of the region. For the change between the 1970s and the 1980s, the southern and lowland part of the region records an increase in the number of days of approximately 3 to 4 days. However, the North York Moors and the Yorkshire Dales see no change in the number of cooling degree days with the annual change holding between -1 and 1 day. It appears that the altitude counteracts the general heating trend appearing throughout the rest of the region.

Precipitation/ Days of Rain ≥1mm
The average annual change of precipitation is recorded as a percentage of total precipitation. The Yorkshire and Humber region records a change of between -2% and 2%. Only a few small areas in the map show a more distinct change, specifically on the North Yorkshire Moors where a 2% to 5% increase is recorded, and in the area of Leeds where a 5% to 2% loss of precipitation is recorded. This can be combined with the number of days of rainfall in the region with the coastal region and Humber estuary recording a loss of 2 to 3 rainy days per year. The remainder of the region records a loss in the number of rain days by 1 to 2 days. This statement is the measure of the number of days with an amount of rain equalling to, or greater than 1mm.

Sea-level Pressure
Sea-level pressure is measured in hPa averaged over the month. The UKCIP08 report identifies both the annual and seasonal variations in sea-level pressure through the 1970s and the 1980s. A comparison between the two time periods is presented to give a clear indication of the changes occurring. Seasonally, the spring records the greatest change for the Yorkshire and Humber region. It is the only season where there is an increase in sea-level pressure for the whole region. The change, recorded in hPa, is between 0.2 and 0.6 hPa. The summer sees an increase in sea-level pressure in the north-east of the region above Flamborough Head and the winter increase appears at the end of the Humber Estuary. Otherwise, the rest of the region for the rest of the year records no significant change in sea-level pressure. Annually, this results in an increase in the north-east area of the region of between 0.2 and 0.5 hPa.

Wind Speed at 10m
Mean wind speed is measured in knots at a height of 10m above ground level and averaged over a month. Seasonally, wind speeds are greater during winter and weaker during the summer. The annual figures represent the study area more appropriately and clearly for interpretation. The coastal region and the upland areas of the North York Moors and the Yorkshire Dales reveals high wind speeds with an average annual mean between 10 and 14 knots. The remaining area of the region, valleys and urban areas reveal annual average mean wind speeds of 7 to 10 knots. In comparison to the rest of the UK, this is lower than the Pennines, Lake District and the Scottish Highlands but more than central England, Wales and London. This demonstrates its relative exposure to onshore northerly and north-easterly winds.

Relative Humidity
Relative humidity is measured as the average vapour pressure averaged over the month. This change between the 1970s and the 1980s is measured as a percentage. The UKCIP08 report shows a decrease in the relative humidity for the region through each season and sequentially annually. During the spring, autumn and winter, the decrease is recorded between -0.3 and -0.9%. The summer sees the greatest change in relative humidity with a reduction from -0.9 to -1.2%. Annually, the change between the 1970s and the 1980s is primarily between -0.6 and -0.9% for the majority of the region. The far north of Yorkshire and north-west, essentially the upland areas of the study area, records an annual average relative humidity change of between -0.3 and -0.6%.

 

 

Historic Station Data

Also available from the Met Office is historic data from stations, with records running from the late 1800s.  These stations provide data on the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; days of air frost; rainfall and sunshine hours. The stations relevant to the study are:

For the purposes of the present analysis, data from a single year has been recovered from every successive decade from the dataset.

Bradford

Graph 1: Bradford 100 year Maximum Temperature

Bradford 100 year Maximum Temperature

The maximum average temperature for Bradford shows an overall increase in temperature over the 100 year period. Interestingly, the years with the lowest maximum temperature appear to have the greatest temperature range throughout the year. The year 1940 has both the lowest temperature in January and the highest temperature in June. Overall, the warmest year on the record for the winter months is 2000, showing that the climate over the 100 year period has increased in temperature despite not reaching the highest maximum average temperatures on the overall record.

 

Graph 2: Bradford 100 year Minimum Temperature

 Bradford 100 year Minimum Temperature

The average minimum temperature over the record show similar results to the maximum temperature above. 1940 has the lowest temperature in the winter months but also the highest temperature in August. The temperature increases over the 100 years are evident with the years 1990 and 2000 recording the highest winter averages and remaining high in the summer months.

 

Graph 3: Bradford 100 year Hours of Sunshine

 Bradford 100 year Hours of Sunshine

The sunshine days are representative of the temperatures recorded. 1940 stands out as the year with the least sunshine in the winter but most in the summer. Interestingly, the warmer years of 1990 and 2000 have an average number of sunshine days. This may indicate an increased level of cloud cover, increasing the radiation received by the earth but less is reflected back into the atmosphere due to cloud reflecting the waves back to the earth’s surface.

 

Graph 4: Bradford 100 year Rainfal

Bradford 100 year Rainfall

Rainfall varies from year to year.   The year 2000 was one of the driest summers on record. The year 1940 where temperatures have had the greatest variation, consistently received less than 100mm of rainfall through the year with only November reaching nearly 150mm.

 

Graph 5: Bradford 100 year Number of Days Air Fros

Bradford 100 year Number of Days Air Frost

The number has days air frost has decreased over the 100 year period. Evidently the summer is unaffected by the air frost record. The lower number of frost days is lower in the latter half of the century with the year 2000 being consistently low. Fewer air frost days represent warmer temperatures and less variation between the temperatures on the earth’s surface and in the lower troposphere.

 

Sheffield

Graph 6: Sheffield 100 year Maximum Temperature

Sheffield 100 year Maximum Temperature

An overall increase in temperature through the 100 year period identified demonstrates an overall warming of the air temperatures in Sheffield. 1940 shows the greatest temperature range from the winter through to the summer with the coldest winter and the warmest summer. The latter years of 1990 and 2000 are consistently higher throughout the year with 1990 peaking at approximately 23˚C in August. Interestingly, 1920 recorded the warmest winter months but the coolest summer months.

 

Graph 7: Sheffield 100 year Minimum Temperature

Sheffield 100 year Minimum Temperature

The minimum temperature variations show a clear result of temperature rise over the century. 1940 again has the greatest range in temperature over the year. However, there is a clear distinction of 1990 and 2000 for having the highest minimum temperatures during the winter months and with the exception of 1900, the warmest summer month temperatures.

 

Graph 8: Sheffield 100 year Hours of Sunshine

Sheffield 100 year Hours of Sunshine

The record the number of hours of sunshine received in Sheffield only runs from 1930. Therefore, we have a 77 year record. From this, it is possible to see the significance of 1940 with the low number of hour’s sun in the winter and receiving the most sunshine days in June. 1990 has a similar range to that of 1940 but 2000 received a comparatively lower number of hour’s sunshine. This can be explained through increased cloud cover increasing temperatures due to increased reflection of heat by the clouds down to the earth’s surface.

 

Graph 9: Sheffield 100 year Rainfall

Sheffield 100 year Rainfall

The graph can demonstrate that the latter years of the century generally recorded less rainfall. Overall, the general trend in rainfall decreases over the years indicating a change of the baseline climate.

 

Graph 10: Sheffield 100 year Number of Days Air Frost

Sheffield 100 year Number of Days Air Frost

The number of days with air frost decreases over the 100 year period identified. The years 1890 and 1940 stand out with the most days of air frost and the later years having significantly less air frost days and therefore less temperature difference in the surface and air temperature that instigates air frost.