This regional assessment gives an overview of issues associated with business and the economy resulting from projected climate changes to 2050. It addresses the following sub-sectors:

• Agriculture, forestry and fisheries;
• Tourism, leisure and culture;
• Manufacturing;
• Innovation and advanced technology;
• Retail;
• Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs); and
• Other areas important at the regional or at sub-regional levels.

Over 20% of the regional workforce was employed in the public sector in 2005 (ONS)), and the NHS is the largest single employer in the region. Healthcare and public sector services are addressed under Health and Welfare and under Public and Voluntary Services. The voluntary and community sector is estimated to employ about 4% of the population, contributing to a similar proportion of the economy.

Organisations associated with critical infrastructure (eg. water, power, telecommunications, and transport) are addressed under Infrastructure and Utilities.

Effects on agricultural and forestry businesses are considered within this section; effects on habitats are considered under Biodiversity.

 

Description
The region has been one the fastest growing in Europe; between 2001 and 2006 Regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased significantly, and now exceeds £81 billion (www.yorkshireforward.com).

Although a significant proportion of regional GDP is based in West Yorkshire, the region as a whole has a strong, mixed economy. However Gross Value Added (GVA), a measure of regional economic performance, remains below the England average (Yorkshire Futures 2009 (2007 figures).

In the late twentieth century the region was affected by large-scale job losses from manufacturing and mining. Losses from manufacturing continue, but strongholds remain important in areas such as Sheffield and the Humber. In the early 2000s the region experienced the lowest levels of unemployment for 30 years but levels are now rising (ONS 2009). The lowest employment levels are in South Yorkshire and in Bradford, Hull and Scarborough Districts (Yorkshire Futures 2009 (2007 figures)).

Existing and traditional industries will remain important for the region, but the Regional Economic Strategy (RES) (Yorkshire Forward 2006) identifies seven priority ‘clusters’ for future support and growth:

• Advanced engineering and metals;
• Digital;
• Chemicals;
• Bioscience;
• Food and drink
• Healthcare technologies; and
• Environmental technologies (the latter two were added to the initial five in 2004).

The Northern Way initiative is also driving economic growth across the north of England within City Regions (economic catchment areas which can cross regional boundaries). These encompass much of the region’s economic activity, growth and population, and future planning will increasingly be aligned with them, rather than the sub-regions. The three within Yorkshire and Humber are:

• Leeds (including Leeds, York, Bradford, Harrogate, Wakefield, Kirklees, Calderdale, Selby, Barnsley and Craven);
• Sheffield (Sheffield, Doncaster, Rotherham, Barnsley, plus areas within the East Midlands region); and
• The Hull and Humber Ports (covering the same area as the Humber sub-region).

© Copyright Steve Morgan for Yorkshire Futures, 2008

Recent growth in Leeds has been based on the service sector. It received over £3billion of private investment between 1996 and 2006 and represents a UK centre of financial and business services (Yorkshire Forward 2006).

The Humber Ports complex is the second largest in the UK and the fourth largest in Europe; it makes a significant contribution, directly and indirectly, to the regional and sub-regional economies, and employs a significant workforce.

City regions are a way of approaching regional economic development, and the priority clusters identify areas where targetted action can prompt growth. However growth will still be supported in other areas and sectors. Agriculture and tourism remain important in rural and coastal areas, and towns such as Scarborough and Northallerton, outside the City Regions, will continue to develop.

It is notable that the region is more self-sufficient than any other UK region, exporting slightly more than it imports. Around 10% of companies do not purchase from outside the region and around half do not purchase from overseas (Yorkshire Forward 2006).

Since 2001 economic regeneration has been focused on ‘Renaissance’ areas, including Barnsley, Grimsby, Scarborough and Huddersfield. Transport links, and in particular congestion, are raised in the Regional Economic Strategy (Yorkshire Forward 2006) as limitations on growth.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Agriculture and forestry are key sectors particularly in North Yorkshire and the East Riding - over 76% of Yorkshire and Humber is agricultural land. This is also important culturally and for its tourist attraction, as addressed below, but remains critical to rural livelihoods and its contribution to the wider economy (eg the position of agriculture in many supply chains).

© Peter Roworth / Natural England

There is both livestock and arable farming, and cultivation is split almost equally between arable and grassland, with an additional 12% of the land being rough grazing. The prevalence of pig farms is distinctive; the region accounts for nearly 30% of the UK’s pig herd, with a large proportion in the East Riding and North Yorkshire (Yorkshire Futures 2006; Defra 2008a).

© Peter Roworth / Natural England

Winter temperatures and the high rainfall in the Pennines the Moors, affects the growing season in upland areas and limits agricultural production to extensive livestock, in particular sheep (Defra 2008a). The lowland Vales of Pickering and York, and the Humber Estuary, are relatively dry, but exposure to easterly winds increases the risk of erosion. However a long growing season (around 250 days inland and 275 around the Humber Estuary) means there are few limits on agriculture (MAFF 2000). Soil types also define agriculture uses:

• Excellent or very good (Grade 1 or 2) land makes up 20% of the region, in particular in the Vale of York, the Yorkshire and Lincolnshire Wolds, and around the lower Trent and Ouse. It can support a wide range of crops (MAFF 2000);
• Grade three land (much of the remaining lowland) is largely clay-based. Wetness and dryness can cause problems (as erosion of lighter soils). A restricted range of arable and root crops can be grown (MAFF 2000);
• Lower grade land (4 and 5) is found in over 30% of the region, largely associated with the foothills and higher ground, but also some very poorly drained areas in the Vale of York, and Thorne and Hatfield Moors. They are usually limited to grass and forage crops and rough grazing (MAFF 2000).

The region has major tracts of semi-natural, ancient, managed and plantation woodland, which covered over 90,000 hectares in 2002 (Forestry Commission). Almost two-thirds is in North Yorkshire where notable plantations include Dalby Forest (Ryedale District). Both South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire have over 35% of their woodland designated as ancient, much of which extends into the urban areas (Ancient Woodland Inventory, Carter 1987). Humber is the least forested sub-region.

A significant fishing fleet still operates from Whitby, Scarborough, Bridlington, Hull and Grimsby. They fish principally for cod, crab and lobster, although a more diverse catch is generally landed at Scarborough, Grimsby and Whitby (Marine and Fisheries Agency 2006). There is also large number of fish and food processing and manufacturing companies. 1,100 of the businesses within the region’s Food and Drink cluster are associated with manufacturing (Yorkshire Forward d).

© copyright Environment Agency

 

Tourism culture and leisure
Tourism has for a long time provided a significant contribution to the region’s economy. It is estimated to be worth over £5.3 billion (2003 figures (GOYH 2006)) and to account for up to 10% of employment (Yorkshire Forward b).

The region has many attractive towns and cities including York, Harrogate and Whitby, a variety of landscapes including coastal areas and national parks, and diverse attractions and venues. There were 8.7million visitors to attractions within the region in 2006, and this figure has been increasing (Yorkshire Tourist Board, 2008). Flamingo Land, near Malton, was the most visited regional attraction in 2007 (Yorkshire Tourist Board, 2008).

© Copyright Steve Morgan for Yorkshire Futures, 2008

There are three National Parks – the Yorkshire Dales NP, Yorkshire Moors NP, and the northeast section of the Peak District NP. More land is within a national park in Yorkshire and Humber (27%) than in any other region (MAFF 2000) and this supports significant levels of tourism.

Scarborough was the world’s first seaside resort town and remains a significant destination, along with Bridlington.

The region has more than 32,000 historical buildings and monuments, 180 galleries and museums and over 300 performance venues (www.ytb.org.uk). Cultural and heritage attractions include Castle Howard, the Stephen Joseph Theatre (Scarborough), museums such as the National Rail Museum (York) and the recently-renovated Rotunda (Scarborough), Country Parks (eg Rother Valley (Rotherham)), and Yorkshire Sculpture Park (Wakefield). Other heritage sites include a wide range of archaeological sites, monuments and landscapes. The region is also home to two UNESCO World Heritage Sites: Saltaire industrial village (Bradford district) and Fountains Abbey and Studley Royal, near Ripon (Harrogate District).

Cultural centres also include sports venues for football (including Hull, Leeds, Sheffield and Cleethorpes), rugby union (Halifax) and rugby league (Bradford, York, Wakefield), cricket (eg Headingley), athletics (Don Valley) and racecourses (eg Ripon and York), as well as a smaller formal and informal facilities. There are also 190 golf courses spread across the lowland areas, with famous clubs including Harrogate and Ganton (Scarborough). Music and cultural festivals such as the Leeds Festival, York Literature Festival, the Great Yorkshire Show and Scarborough Jazz Festival also take place throughout the year and across the region.

© Copyright Steve Morgan for Yorkshire Futures, 2008

 

Manufacturing
The region is traditionally associated with manufacturing and heavy industry. Declining manufacturing employment in the late 20th century still continues, and although the rate has slowed considerably the number of people employed in the Chemicals sector reduced by around 20% between 2000 and 2004 (Yorkshire Forward 2006). Despite this the region remains strongly dependent on manufacturing. The region’s manufacturing also remains of national importance. Significant sub-sectors include Food, drink and tobacco; Metals; and Timber, rubber and plastic (Foodyorkshire.com). The metals, textiles, engineering and chemicals sub-sectors are particularly represented in West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire and the Humber sub-region.

Yorkshire and Humber is the UK’s biggest food producer (Yorkshire Forward d). Much of this is concentrated in North Yorkshire and the Humber where it is the principal manufacturing sub-sector, responsible, for example, for 30-40% of the UK’s fish processing output.

Non-food and niche manufacturing is being encouraged by the development of parks such as the AMP (Advanced Manufacturing Park) at Waverley (Rotherham District). More traditional manufacturing parks and industrial estates include Europarc in Grimsby and Sutton Fields in Hull.

Innovation and advanced technology
Seven percent of companies in the region are associated with Research and Development (R&D) with higher education providers (Yorkshire Forward 2006), but overall R&D spend is low (0.4% of GVA compared with England (1.3%) and other regions (eg East of England 3.4%)) (Yorkshire Futures 2009 (2005 figures)).

The digital sector, with links to the creative industries is being particularly developed in Leeds and Sheffield. Environmental technologies, Healthcare technologies and Biosciences are also developing sectors (Yorkshire Forward 2006).

Retail
Whilst not exclusive to the region, many of the region’s larger towns and cities have a significant retail sector. Leeds, as an example, has attracted high-profile brands including Harvey Nichols. Across the region there is a full retail offering, from national and multi-national chains to high-street and specialist ‘niche’ stores (often SMEs). There are also a number of retail parks and malls. Meadowhall in Sheffield is a larger example.

Small and medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)
The region has a higher proportion of small businesses (<250 employees) than the national average (Yorkshire Forward 2006). Many companies are ‘micro’ with just a handful of staff, but together SMEs make a greater contribution to the Yorkshire and Humber economy than in other regions. They are present in almost all business clusters. In particular agriculture, digital and innovation industries are likely to be SMEs, but 90% of manufacturing companies employed fewer than 50 people in 2003 (Yorkshire Forward c)). Many organisations in the voluntary and community sector are also comparable with SMEs.

Other
The largest employer in the region is the National Health Service (almost 150,000, including over 50,000 professional clinical staff (NHS: 2007 figures). Their importance as both an employer and as a client cannot be overlooked.

The financial sector has a strong presence centred on the larger cities, and in particular Leeds. Up to 25% of businesses in the region are in the financial services sector. Notwithstanding the recent economic downturn, banking and finance was the fastest growing sector in the region in recent years.

Another significant sector is Distribution, hotels and restaurants, representing a higher than average proportion of the region’s companies. Warehousing and logistics operations are particularly associated with Wakefield and Doncaster, because of links to the road network, and with the Humber ports. Major shippers, such as ASDA (Normanton, Wakefield District)) and B&Q (Doncaster District), are locating in the region (DfT).

Construction has also been a large industry in the region, and is associated with the region’s regeneration although recent conditions mean construction has slowed.

The region has considerable mineral resources, in particular limestone, sand and gravel (Yorkshire and Humber Regional Aggregates Working Party). North Yorkshire accounts for over 50% of the sand and gravel. There is also significant aggregate extraction in the Humber estuary

There are also plans to develop Carbon Capture and Storage operations, associated with the Humber and offshore gas networks. Potentially a large industry, climate change considerations affecting it will be similar to those affecting gas infrastructure.

 

Impacts
Core principles relating to climate change impacts and adaptation are provided in the UKCIP document A Changing Climate for Business: business planning for the impacts of climate change (UKCIP 2009 (which updates a 2005 version)). Overarching points include the need to acknowledge that:

• the climate is changing;
• climate impacts can affect many businesses’ turnover and profit;
• not just ‘environmental’ businesses will be affected;
• businesses will be particularly vulnerable if they are already affected by weather (eg heatwaves, storms, flooding), and/or make long-term investments (eg buildings and infrastructure). Twenty-eight percent of UK businesses who responded to a survey by the Chartered Management Institute said that they were affected by extreme weather in 2007 (UKCIP 2009);
• businesses with international markets may be affected by changes overseas;
• there will be opportunities as well as threats.

The role of climate change as a business opportunity, identified in the development of the 2006 Regional Economic Strategy, is reflected in a strategic priority:

The region will respond vigorously to climate change by integrating sustainable development into activity and mainstreaming practical projects. It will reduce polluting emissions, dependency on fossil fuels and create new business opportunities – for instance by reducing waste, promoting efficient and renewable energy, and managing flood risks.

Impacts on individual sectors are addressed in the sections below, but many impacts apply to a number of sectors. UKCIP’s Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool (BACLIAT) identifies six general headings under which climate change will affect businesses:

• Premises. Office-based operations are likely to experience similar impacts regardless of their sector. Climate will affect both existing buildings and the future requirements of new buildings. Particular impacts are expected to include:
• Increased internal temperatures;
• Increased water penetration through the building fabric;
• A need for enhanced drainage to deal with rainfall intensity;
• Increased risk from fluvial, tidal and urban flooding;
• Increases in storm damage and disruption;
• An increase in building subsidence due to enhanced wet-dry soil cycles.
• People. Future comfort and safety are an issue for many industries. Within-building issues such as temperatures reducing productivity, and the potential for mould growth to affect health, are addressed elsewhere (see Health and welfare). Infrastructure-related disruption of commuting, and of customer access are also likely;
• Markets. The region’s relative self-sufficiency (positive export balance) may increase resilience by reducing dependency on areas outside the region. However it could also to be a source of vulnerability;
• Finance. Lenders and insurers will react to future risks and may require greater evidence of climate adaptation; in some situations insurance may be impossible;
• Logistics. The distribution sector, upon which many industries are reliant, is dependent on transport infrastructure. Business is also dependent upon it for commuting (see the Infrastructure and Utilities section);
• Processes. Changes in temperature, rainfall and drought, wind speeds and the availability of eg cooling water may affect industrial operations.

 

Sub-sector specific impacts of climate change are raised below.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Arable farming
Warmer temperatures are likely to extend growing seasons and crop yields are expected to increase, at least in the medium term. However over the longer-term there may need to be more significant adaptation to more heat resilient crops.

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels also create the potential for higher yields, although more minerals and nutrients might need to be provided to crops.

The potential for growing new crops is another likely impact. Soil type will remain a factor, but the region’s more productive soils could be used to grow crops which are currently unviable. Warmer temperatures may also mean poorer quality soils could be used to grow tolerant crops. Specialist species may also become more viable as the need for heated sheds decreases, and altered competition from overseas growers may allow market entry by regional growers. Conversely species which require a cold period may increasingly need intervention (eg cold stores) to stimulate growth. This could affect crops such as strawberries and rhubarb, historically associated with the ‘rhubarb triangle’ (Morley, Wakefield and Rothwell).

Hotter drier summers will likely affect the need for crop irrigation, but with extended drought periods competition for water between agriculture and domestic, industrial and wider habitat needs may increase.

Erratic rainfall patterns will also be a problem. Summer rainfall is projected to decrease but heavier rain events will complicate irrigation management. Wider problems with soil management are also likely; waterlogged land and increased soil erosion will reduce productivity over time with negative effects on yield. They will also potentially limit access to land and increase disruption of key periods such as sowing and harvesting. Specialist machinery or tools may be needed and in some years losses could outweigh the longer growing season. There would be a knock-on impact on food processing and manufacturing businesses.

Rising sea-levels will mean greater and more frequent inundation of agricultural and silvicultural land. The negative effects of salt on crops may render low-lying areas (eg in the Humber sub-region) unsuitable. In the shorter term tidal flooding, exacerbated by increased storminess and surge heights, may threaten crops. Flooding can also spread contamination onto agricultural land with implications for health.

Higher storm wind speeds can increase the economic damage of crops. During drier summer conditions, they can also increase erosion of productive topsoil.

Temperature and other changes may have an indirect effect through the introduction, or increased range and virulence, of pests and diseases. Larger pest populations may also occur as fewer are killed by winter cold. Crops are particularly susceptible to microbes and fungi, and flooding can speed their growth and spread. Stresses from temperature, drought and waterlogging will also increase the susceptibility of plants to attack by pests and diseases, and in combination could have dramatic effects on arable systems. These can affect economic value, as well as food security and consumer health (FAO 2008), and control could become a greater proportion of work.

Wider changes in society may create opportunities for diversification, including to provide biomass for energy production. An increased focus on locally-sourced food, organic production, and lower impact living could further benefit the region. It is well-placed to respond to changing agricultural markets which could further develop the agricultural and Food and Drink sectors.

Livestock farming
Animals are susceptible to heat stress in the same way as humans are. Pigs, an important livestock animal in the region (especially in North Yorkshire and East Riding (Defra 2008a), will be particularly susceptible to increased temperatures (Farming Futures 2008a; b)), which can affect wellbeing, with implications for growth and management (FAO 2008).

Particularly where animal water supply is fed by springs or is susceptible to drying up, drought conditions will increase the need to provide water. This is less likely to be a problem on extensively farmed uplands, except where water supplies are already limited.

Depending on vegetation changes, times of movement of animals between upland and lowland (for sheep), or between sheds and fields (cows) may vary. A longer growing season for grass means strong growth (which currently occurs in May/June) may occur earlier. Keeping animals outside or on uplands for longer will mean feed and other costs may reduce. Events such as lambing and calving may also need to occur at different times to make the most of suitable forage and temperatures.

Conversely drought, heavy rainfall and waterlogging, and plant quality, may mean intensively-farmed animals need supplementary feeding or housing to prevent them trampling fields and reducing pasture quality. This is more likely to affect cattle and pigs. There may be an increased need for shelter and housing during storms when stronger winds affect animal comfort and can increase the likelihood of injury (eg from debris).

In the shorter term tidal flooding may increase risks to livestock grazing susceptible areas, and increases in storminess and storm surge heights will enhance these. Over the longer term rising sea-levels mean some areas (eg in the Humber sub-region) become unsuitable. Increased flooding from any source can also spread contamination.

Increased weed growth (eg bracken and ragwort) could mean a greater need for chemical or other controls to maintain forage quality. Changes in the nutritional value of feed and forage (due to changes in temperature, soil moisture, CO2 levels, or interactions between plant growth and endophytic fungi) can particularly affect species with limited alternative food. As high quality forage becomes limited, lower quality plants can cause lower yields and increase the incidence of sicknesses such as ryegrass staggers and fescue toxicosis.

Other changes, in particular to winter and night time temperatures and peak rainfall events, may increase insect numbers (eg mosquito and flies) affecting disease transmission. Serious diseases such as bluetongue may increase. Increased susceptibility of livestock to infection, as a result of other stresses, or increased exposure due to changes in farming practice, will also exacerbate these risks. The potentially long-lasting impact of diseases on agriculture is well-documented.

Increased spread of disease by wild animals to livestock may also increase. In extreme situations there could also be more transmission from livestock to humans (FAO 2008). Sicknesses which are expected to increase include hepatitis E, which can be transmitted from pigs and shellfish, salmonella and campylobacter, cryptosporidium and giardia.

Since many related changes have implications for animal welfare there is likely to be an increased need for veterinary interventions, and consequences for the value of meat or other products.

Forestry
In woodlands which are primarily managed for timber production, changes to, temperature and rainfall may significantly affect yield; climate change may increase growth by a yield class, although rates will vary between species. This growth is not expected to affect the useability of forested timber (Forest Research 2008).

However some woodland will be negatively affected. Waterlogging increases root die-back, premature defoliation and death of newly planted trees. Temperature can also increase stress loads. ‘Top dying’ of Norway spruce is associated with warm winters followed by severe water stress (Quine and Gardiner). Warmer winters can also reduce hardening making trees more susceptible to cold weather when it does occur (Forest Research 2008). Climate change may make several current economic crop species unviable, and younger trees are more susceptible overall.

Increased wind speed and enhanced wet/dry soil cycles will also affect tree stability. Trees tend to be well-adapted to mean conditions but damage is most often caused by extreme events (and combinations of events) which are hard to predict. Increased volatility may increase both stress and ‘wind-throw’. In managed sites there is potential for increased leader loss (damage to trees at the forested edge). Small increases in averages can mask significant increases storm wind speeds and whilst winter winds should only affect non-deciduous trees (eg plantation species), summer storms could affect all trees.

These issues can also make trees more vulnerable to pests and disease. As well as increased host susceptibility, pests and diseases will also respond more directly to climate changes. Impacts will include:

• Bark beetles, which breed in logs and fallen trees, may find that increased windthrow provides more suitable breeding sites;
• Populations of defoliating moths and sawflies may increase as fecundity rises with temperature, and loss of overwintering eggs is likely to reduce;
• Rising temperatures are likely to mean aphid populations increase. Short generational times combined with winged forms mean these could be economically-damaging;
• Fungal pathogens spread by some pests can kill trees. Other pathogens will benefit directly. Leaf pathogens, such as red band needle blight, are among the most commercially-significant diseases in trees and climate change is expected to increase their UK range and impact (Forest Research 2008);
• Phytophthoras (root pathogens) require moist soil conditions, and flooding to spread. Their effects are then most notable in droughts. Wetter winters and hotter drier summers projected for Yorkshire and Humber are therefore expected to create more suitable conditions. Warmer winters are also likely to enable Phytophthera to overwinter in soils;
• Hot dry summers can induce attack from pathogens which otherwise remain undetected. The longer the period of hot weather, the more likely that trees will be affected by pathogens such as Sooty bark disease Cryptostroma corticale in sycamore and Biscogniauxia nummularia, which is associated with strip cankers in beech. These are also likely to extend their range, as are opportunist pathogens responding to host tree and plant stress (Forest Research 2008);
• ‘Exotic’ pests are a further concern over the medium term. Increase in drought-stress, and likely increase in windthrow means there is a greater chance of future colonisation of species such as European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (Forest Research 2008). The location of the Humber ports increases this risk;
• Secondary effects of responding to climate change may include the introduction of alien pests and diseases in newly-cultivated species, and knock-on effects of those species on existing woodlands and biodiversity.

The spread of insects, and the damage associated with them, will be dependent on the responses of natural predators and plant defence mechanisms, which are currently unknown.

Climate change may require that plantations use different species from provenances more well-adapted to future conditions. Differing management practices may also be required to deal with a changing understorey – increased weed growth (such as bracken, bramble and grasses) will mean more ground clearance to enable sapling growth - including in tree nurseries. Some practices, such as clear-felling, could interact with changing rainfall or wind patterns to increase soil erosion. Although the resulting loss of productivity and carbon store, and increased sediment in watercourses, are current considerations, future conditions will increase the frequency of these events.

Droughts, combined with an expected increase in outdoor leisure (see below), are expected to increase the occurrence of forest fires. Impacts will be similar to those addressed for moorlands under Public and voluntary services although they may have greater economic significance.

Climate change does not solely represent a threat to the region’s forests and woodlands, however. Legislation to encourage climate mitigation is likely to create opportunities and incentives, particularly associated with providing biomass for energy, timber for sustainable buildings, and UK-based carbon sequestration schemes. Such opportunities will be available across the region.

Other impacts of climate change will also offer opportunities for woodland expansion. Modelling of the River Laver near Ripon (for Defra 2008b) demonstrates the role in reducing flooding. There is likely to also be an increased demand for trees in urban areas where they can suppress local temperatures and provide shelter from wind. Although where they are close to buildings and infrastructure there is the potential for increased disruption, these risks can be managed. Climate change also offers an opportunity for forestry and woodland management to play a significant role in biodiversity resilience.

Fisheries
Although global fisheries production is expected to remain broadly stable, the distribution of species is likely to change. A significant proportion of the catch landed through the region’s ports is cod, lobster and crab. Although current knowledge is limited there are already increases in the abundance of warmer water fish (such as red mullet) in UK waters and consequent declines in more traditional cold water fish such as cod (thought to be due in part to higher stress and mortality among younger fish (MCCIP 2008)). Fleets may find that traditional catch species become unavailable, or are present only in new fishing areas. The attractiveness of new species will be dependent on the market.

The occurrence of Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB), exacerbated by increased temperatures, has risen globally in recent years (FAO 2008), and is projected to continue (Munteanu 2008). Although aquaculture is not significant within the region localised impacts could affect shellfish fisheries. Toxins can also accumulate in the food chain with implications for human health and for the food processing industry.

Tourism culture and leisure
Higher summer temperatures and lower rainfall are likely to increase demand for outdoor leisure. With temperatures also expected to increase greatly in overseas destinations there should be opportunities for developing Yorkshire and Humber’s tourism sectors in response to a greater flow of tourists from within the UK and abroad. Domestic tourism may also be encouraged by stronger measures to mitigate climate change, such as personal carbon allowances.

An extended season, with increased visitation in the shoulder periods (in response to warmer temperatures) would reduce the seasonality of income flows and employment usually associated with this sector and particularly benefit areas where tourism is a major contributor to the economy (eg North Yorkshire).

In rural areas the effects of drought and flood and declining snow cover, and changing crops, habitats and land management will affect the visual landscape, and possibly its attraction. Other impacts may include increased path erosion due to both increased visitation, and a lack of protective snow cover will mean there is no winter recovery period for upland areas. Conversely loss of paths and cycleways during extreme rainfall and floods could limit access to the countryside and venues.

Increased visitor numbers will also enhance current problems. Pressure on shops, hotels and parking could have either negative or positive implications. Pressures on water supply and treatment will be more likely to have a negative effect, again more strongly felt in rural areas where infrastructure is more limited. Increased visitation also has the potential to displace tourists to areas less well-prepared to cope. Daily tourism movements are already reported to be stressing transport infrastructure, and increasing tourism may make this problem worse.

Greater numbers of people in upland areas, and woodlands such as Dalby Forest, will increase the possibility of moorland and forest fires (as discussed above, and in the Public and voluntary services section).

With increased outdoor leisure there is likely to be an increased demand for urban open space and for outdoor cafes and restaurants.

Sea-level rise and increased storm surge height are likely to impact tourism due to the number of attractions at the coast – in particular the resorts of Scarborough and Bridlington and the wildlife habitats of the Humber. Any loss due to inundation or storm damage, and particularly reductions in beach bathing space and coastal habitat integrity, will affect visitation. Urban flooding near the coast can also affect the quality of bathing waters (and eg Blue Flag status of beaches) such as Scarborough, and the general attractiveness of an area.

Both waterlogging and drought are likely at golf courses and other sports venues. There will be increasing difficulty maintaining grass condition during the summer, and in periods of drought irrigation water may be limited. As considered under Public and voluntary services parkland management associated with cultural attractions will also be affected.

Crowd welfare and safety, particularly during periods of extreme heat or storms, may require changes in procedures. Outdoor events may become increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, with impacts ranging from disruption to, in extreme situations, cancellation (eg York races in 2008), and implications for insurance and other costs.

Manufacturing
Aside from impacts on supply chains and on employee comfort and mobility, addressed above, there are a number of positive and negative effects of climate change.

With a strong historic base and future focus on manufacturing Yorkshire and Humber is well placed to respond to increased demand for renewable energy infrastructure, as well as offering a number of locations suitable for larger-scale generation. There will also be opportunities to develop other technical solutions to climate mitigation and adaptation, potentially linked with the Innovation and advanced technology sector.

Industrial processes requiring large amounts of water, for cleaning or cooling in particular, may be affected during droughts. Limitations on use may reduce output or efficiency and increase costs. In the longer term permanent reductions in water use may be required.

In the food processing industry the potential for increased contamination, particularly of shellfish, will affect treatment and handling procedures. Little is currently known about the effects of climate change on the spread of food-borne disease but salmonella is known to increase after periods of warmer weather (FAO 2008). Increased flooding, particularly in manufacturing parks, may also increase the spread of contamination. Food and Drink sector businesses will be particularly susceptible. Other impacts will include potential reductions in the shelf-life of products, affecting storage.

Clothing manufacturers may need to respond to increases in demand for different types of clothing, and in particular those associated with hot weather.

Innovation and advanced technology
Many of the businesses represented in this sector will be principally affected by impacts on premises and on employee mobility. Industries in new business parks and innovation centres may slightly increase susceptibility to urban flash flooding.

Although they will affect all organisations, digital industries will experience disproportionate impacts of problems with IT infrastructure. Large data storage centres are susceptible to hot temperatures and particularly to flooding. Although usually in temperature controlled rooms, the common location of servers and data storage in ground floor and basement locations creates a particular vulnerability.

Retail
Aside from impacts on premises, and on employee and customer comfort and mobility, changing market demands are likely to be the most significant impact on the retail sector.

The retail sector is well-used to responding to peaks in demand in response to weather events. During wet periods sales of comfort foods are known to increase, whilst during sustained high temperatures sales of alcohol, outdoor goods, and foods such as icecream and salads increase. Clothing sales are also affected but these changes, with implications for suppliers and retailers, are well understood. Since most climate changes will occur over longer timescales the retail sector is expected to be reasonably resilient. However, increased volatility may mean that wider ranges may need to be stocked to respond to extreme events (eg the need for wet weather clothes in summer).

Hot weather can also reduce the distance people travel to shop, and could increase opportunities for local shops and businesses (Climate South East, cited by UKCIP 2009). The attractiveness of city centre locations may be reduced during periods of extreme heat, but conversely both storm events and heatwaves may increase the attractiveness of the controlled environments in shopping centres and malls.

SMEs
By far the largest proportion of businesses in almost all sectors in the region are classified as SME. These are often disproportionately vulnerable to severe events, disruptions, and changes in markets, in part because they often operate from a single or small number of sites. They may also be more at risk of losing data or physical materials than larger companies which may have better integrated business continuity planning. Even short term disruptions in operations can result in the permanent loss of clients to competitors.

Other
Impacts on the financial sector are largely related to IT and buildings, and to staffing and commuting. However significant increases in weather-related damage insurance claims have implications for the insurance sector. Reports by the Association of British Insurers (2005) and reinsurance firms have noted dramatic increases and are projecting weather-related losses and claims to double or triple before 2050. These projections suggest that climate change will have a significant effect on companies’ capacity to respond, both financially and because of sheer demand. UKCIP (2009) cite a Danish insurance firm who after a storm dealt with more calls in one day than in the previous month.

The logistics sector is extremely susceptible to transport infrastructure and port disruptions. As with retail parks, warehouse and distribution parks, often large areas of impermeable surfaces containing buildings with flat roofs, will be susceptible to urban flooding. Maintaining suitable temperatures in warehouses may also present a problem.

Impacts on any developing CCS industry are likely to be common to those experienced by current gas supply networks, addressed under Infrastructure and Utilities.

 

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| North Yorkshire | West Yorkshire | Humber | South Yorkshire |

 

Description
Five of the sub-region’s eight districts are defined as ‘Rural 80’, the most rural classification, by Defra. However the Leeds City Region does extend into the sub-region. York is recognised as a centre of science excellence and Harrogate remains a key sub-regional centre. Western districts, Selby and the coast are areas of, or requiring, regeneration.

Reflecting the sub-region’s more rural nature much of the economic renaissance activity is focused on market towns, including Skipton, Settle, Whitby, Northallerton, Thirsk, Kirkbymoorside and Pickering. Urban renaissance is occurring in towns including Scarborough and in Selby District which suffers from low levels of income and employment following closure of the coalfields (Yorkshire Forward 2006).

The wider environment is a significant draw to the sub-region, and land management is central to this. Both agriculture and forestry are also significant industries. The combination of soil type and upland environments mean that much of the area away from the central A1 corridor is farmed by extensive livestock (with large numbers of sheep (Defra 2008a). Dalby Forest (Ryedale District) is a major forest resource.

The sub-region has seen declines in its fisheries, but maintains fleets operating from Whitby and Scarborough. They fish for a diverse catch including cod, crab and lobster - between 1500 and 2000 tonnes of fish was landed at each harbour in 2006 (Marine and Fisheries Agency 2006).

The sub-region’s tourism sector is very diverse and although much focuses on culture, heritage and landscape, Flamingo Land, near Malton, remains Yorkshire and Humber’s most-visited fee-paying attraction (Yorkshire Tourist Board 2008). Other attractions include the North Yorkshire Dales and Moors National Parks, the market towns, the coastal zone (including notably Whitby, Robin Hood’s Bay and Scarborough). It is also home to the UNESCO World Heritage Site Fountains Abbey (Harrogate District).

York is also a significant regional centre for cultural and heritage tourism with a wide range of attractions including York Minster, the Jorvik Viking Centre and the National Railway Museum, as well as The Shambles (Europe’s most visited street). Harrogate is an important regional and national centre for business tourism (York and North Yorkshire Partnership Unit 2005). Sub-regional events and festivals include the York Literary Festival and the Scarborough Jazz Festival. Recent investment has included the Futurist theatre redevelopment in Scarborough.

York has traditionally been a centre for engineering and manufacturing. Whilst there have been recent declines manufacturing is represented within most of the growth clusters and remains important in North Yorkshire. Sub-regional investment in the Food and Drink cluster, for instance, includes new processing facilities at Melmerby (near Leyburn) and Leeming Bar (near Northallerton).

The Science City cluster is centred on the University of York, and Bioscience York is another developed cluster. Digital industries are a growth area in York and the Harrogate area (www.yorkshireforward.com). Financial services is a significant sector in York City, together with other service sector industries.

As a regional centre, the retail catchment for York is significant; Scarborough also has a large catchment area due to its rural surroundings. Significant retail centres in the sub-region include Coppergate (York), the York Designer Outlet at Fulford, the Brunswick Centre (Scarborough), and Victoria Shopping Centre (Harrogate).

 

Impacts
A detailed assessment of impacts on each of the sectors considered by this study is reported at the regional level; for brevity impacts relevant to the North Yorkshire sub-region are summarised below. Impacts which are applicable to all businesses are also covered at the regional level and are not repeated here.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Arable farming

• An extended growing season and increased crop yields, at least in the medium term;
• Opportunities, but potentially long term needs, to grow new crops which are currently unviable in the region, possibly in an extended arable area;
• An increased need for crop irrigation in summer, and through periods of extended drought, may lead to increased competition for water between agriculture and domestic, industrial and habitat requirements;
• Greater chance and frequency of sea incursion onto land, through increased storminess, and longer term loss of land as a result of sealevel rise and erosion. Associated with this is greater potential for saline intrusion into groundwater;
• Soil management difficulties resulting from alternating drought and waterlogged conditions, including greater soil erosion from flooding and from wind scour in dry conditions, and long-term reductions in soil productivity;
• Limitations on access to land after heavy rain may disrupt key farming periods such as sowing and harvesting with negative effects on yield;
• Increased susceptibility of plants to attack by pests and diseases because of other climate stresses, combined with the introduction, or increased range, population size and virulence of pests. This means pest and disease control could become a greater proportion of work;
• Opportunities for farm diversification to provide biomass for energy production. Changing agricultural markets, with potential emphases on environmental issues, locally-sourced food, organic production, and lower impact living and altered competition from overseas growers, where conditions may become less suitable, could increase the region’s competitiveness.

Livestock farming

• Increased likelihood of heat stress affecting livestock, with implications for management, and for growth and reproduction rates;
• Increased need for water provision for more intensively farmed animals (less likely to be a problem in the uplands);
• Possible changes in the timing of moving sheep between upland and lowland for sheep, and to the lengths of time, cattle and other animals are required to be kept in barns. Other farm practices, such as lambing and calving, may need to occur earlier, to make the most of forage growth and suitable temperatures;
• Possible changes in the nutritional value of feed crops and forage, increased weed growth leading to reduced pasture quality, negative impacts of drought, heavy rainfall and waterlogging, increased animal distress, and injury, resulting from storms and storm debris could all increase the need for intensively-farmed animals to receive supplementary feeding or housing;
• Increased potential for farm, and off-farm, based contamination of grazing land, with impacts on animal health;
• Increased management of livestock in areas prone to fluvial or tidal flooding. Climate induced increases in sea-level will increase the frequency and extent of inundation of forage land and over the medium to long term may render some particularly low-lying areas unviable;
• Increased susceptibility of livestock to infection as a result of changing practices and other climate induced stresses (such as from temperature). Also an increased prevalence of pests and disease vectors, and in disease transmission to livestock, with potentially long-lasting effects. In extreme situations, and more likely in rural areas, increased transmission of disease from livestock to humans may occur (eg hepatitis, salmonella, cryptosporidium and giardia);
• Changes to domestic and overseas markets with potential for an increased need for food production with consequent conflicts over land use.

Forestry

• Enhanced yield, although varying between species;
• Changes in natural woodland through natural succession and migration of species, and a likely need to introduce new economic crop trees, or trees with a different provenance better adapted to conditions;
• Increased temperature and drought stress and reduced winter hardening of trees. Particular impacts will be felt by pre-economic trees (5-20 years);
• Increased wind-throw in woodlands and plantations, and in particular increased leader loss. Tree stability will be influenced by the combination of increased winter wind speeds and annual volatility, and increased wet/dry soil cycles inducing stress;
• Increased occurrence of forest fires, from accidental ignition or uncontrolled spread, due to drought conditions and expected increases in outdoor leisure, with great economic significance;
• Increased tree vulnerability (reduced resilience) to pests and disease, and the potential for more pests including new ‘exotic’ species, particularly imported through the Humber ports;
• Changing management processes in response to new tree species and changes in canopy and understorey, for instance increased weed growth in woodlands and nurseries;
• Management practices, such as clear-felling, may increase soil erosion rates under increased winter and storm rainfall further enhancing tree instability and stress;
• Possible opportunities to expand forestry onto floodplains and into flood risk areas to ameliorate flood risk, opportunities for woodland expansion linked with enhancing biodiversity, and increased demand for trees in urban areas to limit temperatures and provide shelter from wind;
• New opportunities for farmers and land managers to provide wood and timber for energy production, timber-framed buildings, and woodland sequestration schemes.

Fisheries

• Changing distribution of current market fish, with an increased abundance in UK waters of warm water fish (eg red mullet) and decline in eg cod meaning a likely need to fish new areas, or change target species;
• Possible increased susceptibility of fish species to pests and diseases;
• Increased Harmful Algal Blooms with implications for market fish and human health.

Tourism culture and leisure
Representing a wide range of cultural and heritage attractions as well as the natural environment and landscape, impacts affecting the tourism industry are addressed in all sections of this study. However, particular issues for the sector are:

• Increased demand for outdoor leisure and recreation and opportunities for developing the sector in response to increased numbers of domestic and overseas visitors visiting over an extended peak period;
• Changes to the natural environment may affect the attractiveness of particular areas, including where drought, flood, changing crops, habitats and land management, and declining snow cover, will affect the visual landscape;
• Heavier impact of visitation on natural habitats, including increased path erosion due to visitor numbers and reduced coverage by snow. Loss of footpaths and cycleways during extreme rainfall events and floods could however limit access to the countryside but also increase management costs;
• Increased pressure on destinations, including on shops, hotels and parking which could have negative or positive implications, and on local water supply and treatment, public transport and transport infrastructure which are more likely to have a negative effect in rural areas;
• Increased conflict between recreational and other demands for land and wider impacts of tourism away from traditional attractions as pressure displaces visitors;
• Enhanced risk of moorland and forest fires due to increased visitation, as addressed under Public and voluntary services;
• Sea-level rise and increases in storm surges will affect attractions at the coast, with potential losses in beach bathing space and coastal habitat integrity. Increased urban flooding in coastal areas could lead to increased pollution and the loss of Blue Flag status and visitors;
• Larger numbers of visitors also increase the risks of the import and spread of pests and diseases affecting many other sectors; Parkland and grounds management will be affected, particularly at heritage and cultural attractions, as considered in the Public and voluntary services section;
• Management of conditions at sports venues may require increased irrigation or changes in grass cover or other surfaces.
• Crowd welfare and safety will require closer management during periods of extreme heat or storms and there may be an increased need to limit attendance to, or to cancel, outdoor sporting and cultural events such as festivals potentially causing increased insurance and other costs.

Manufacturing, where present
Impacts on manufacturing will often be very process-specific. In-depth review will be required for specific sites and industries, but as well as impacts associated with premises, supply chains and employee comfort, as above, other impacts will include:

• Likely increase in costs associated with water abstraction and use;
• Likely increases in the rate of some biologically-controlled industrial processes (eg fermentation and composting);
• Knock-on impacts, both positive and negative, of changes to agriculture and fisheries;
• Changes (likely to be reductions) in the shelf-life of products, requiring additional or amended storage facilities, and potentially affecting manufacturing processes;
• Market changes experienced by retailers will also be reflected in changing demands, and possibly altered competition, for clothing manufacturers.

Innovation and advanced technology
This sector will be principally affected by impacts on premises and employees, as above and elsewhere. However, other particular impacts include:

• Possible increases in flash flooding affecting new business parks and innovation centres;
• Disproportionate impact of IT infrastructure disruptions on digital industries, including an increased need for temperature control of data storage sites and significant risk of loss of data from storage centres in ground floor and basement locations;
• A significant opportunity for the region’s companies to develop adaptation measures to some of the impacts identified in this study and elsewhere.

Retail
As well as impacts on premises and employee and customer comfort and mobility as addressed above, changes in market demands and increased disruption of transport infrastructure and supply networks are likely to be the most significant impact on the retail sector. Other impacts include:

• Increased climate volatility may increase the range of products stocked by stores such as supermarkets which cater for a range of needs;
• Likely reduction in distance travelled by people to shop in hot weather, increasing opportunities for local shops and businesses, combined with reduced attractiveness of urban centre shopping as the urban heat island effect exacerbates periods of extreme heat. However possibly also increased visitor pressure to climate controlled sites during stormy or hot weather.

SMEs
Impacts are common with other sectors, since SMEs are present in all. However impacts are likely to be harder felt by SMEs as they are often disproportionately vulnerable to disruption, and business continuity planning is less well-integrated. As well as this, SMEs represent a varied and often hard-to-reach sector.

• Loss of electronic data (addressed above) is particularly likely to affect SMEs where backup systems tend to be less well established;
• Any short term disruptions in supply, operations or distribution can result in clients establishing new supply chains and longer-term loss of business.

Other
Impacts on IT infrastructure, premises and staff as above will also affect the service and other sectors.

• The logistics sector is extremely susceptible to climate impacts on transport infrastructure and ports, addressed elsewhere;
• Increased susceptibility to flash flooding and water ingress on retail parks, and warehouse and distribution parks;
• Maintaining suitable temperatures in large warehouses may present a problem;
• Knock-on impacts on distribution of changes to product supply and market demand.

 

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Description
The West Yorkshire sub-region has the biggest concentration of towns and cities in the region. In 2002 45% of the region’s GDP was in West Yorkshire, and in the period to 2016 it is expected to have the fastest growing sub-regional economy (Yorkshire Forward 2006).

The Leeds City Region includes a labour force of around 1.4 million people and about 70,000 businesses (Yorkshire Forward 2006), and extends beyond the sub-regional boundaries into North Yorkshire. It also has strong links with both the Sheffield city region, and the Manchester city region (outside the Yorkshire and Humber area).

Renaissance activity in Wakefield is developing the logistics and distribution sector serving the wider region’s Food and Drink, manufacturing retail and other sectors. Renaissance plans are also being implemented in other urban areas including Bradford (where employment is lower than elsewhere in the region (Yorkshire Futures 2009, 2005 data)), the Five Towns (Pontefract, Castleford, Normanton, Featherstone and Knottingley) and Halifax, as well as in the rural market towns of the Upper Calder Valley.

Agriculture in West Yorkshire is largely dairy-based and the sector is less important in this sub-region than in others. There is limited woodland although a relatively high proportion of woodland is classified as ancient (35% (Ancient Woodland Inventory, Carter 1987)).

Tourist attractions in the sub-region also tend to be urban in nature, and include a number of high profile museums - the Royal Armouries (Leeds), the National Museum of Photography, Film and Television (Bradford), and the National Coal Mining Museum for England (Caphouse Colliery, Wakefield). The sub-region is also home to the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Saltaire industrial village (Bradford district).

West Yorkshire has a range of cultural assets, including those associated with sport, such as Headingley cricket ground, football stadia including in Leeds and Bradford, and rugby league (Leeds Rhinos, Wakefield Trinity Wildcats) and union (Halifax and Huddersfield) venues. The Galpharm Stadium in Huddersfield (Kirklees District) also hosts a number of non-sporting events. Large scale cultural events in the sub-region include the Leeds Festival, held on August Bank Holiday weekend.

There is a strong manufacturing base in West Yorkshire and the wider Leeds city region; it ranks as the country’s third largest manufacturing centre. Kirklees has a particular concentration and in 2006 almost 30% of people employed in the district were in manufacturing (Yorkshire Forward 2006). Although the sub-sector has declined in Huddersfield and Halifax, Wakefield remains a centre for textiles and other manufacturing. Within the Food and Drink cluster, the sub-region’s production is mostly focussed on beer, mineral water, soft drinks, bread and confectionery (eg Pontefract).

In common with Yorkshire and Humber region, digital industries are a developing sector in urban and rural areas (Yorkshire Forward 2006). Growth in the advanced technology sector is facilitated by the presence of several universities. Bradford University in particular has been associated with recent increases in science and technology businesses. Both Huddersfield and Hebden Bridge were highlighted in a national survey of creative hotspots.

Leeds has developed a reputation as a high profile retail city, reflected in the presence of shops such as Harvey Nichols. Other sub-regional retail centres include the Rawson Quarter in Bradford, White Rose centre (Leeds) and The Mill (Batley). Urban redevelopment, including Wakefield’s Marsh Way area, will provide more.

The financial sector has developed a strong presence in the sub-region, centred on the larger cities, and in particular Leeds and Calderdale. Notwithstanding changes in the economic markets through late 2008, banking and finance was the fastest growing sector in the region in recent years. In particular Leeds represents one of the UK centres of financial and business service companies. Bradford has also developed as a centre for building and construction. Although the economic climate varies and can have severe impacts on this sector, and especially on house building, the sub-region maintains a strong association with the industry.

 

Impacts
A detailed assessment of climate impacts on each sector is reported at the regional level; for brevity the impacts which are most relevant to West Yorkshire are summarised below. For details, see the regional report. Impacts which are applicable to all businesses are not repeated here.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Arable farming, where present

• Extended growing season and increased crop yields, at least in the medium term, with longer term yield limitations imposed by extreme temperatures;
• Likely opportunity, or over the longer term need, to plant different crops to better deal with temperature and in an extended arable area;
• Increased need for crop irrigation in summer, and through periods of extended drought;
• Soil management difficulties and greater erosion from productive farmland resulting from flooding, and from wind scour in dry conditions, and long-term reductions in soil productivity;
• Increased occurrence of more challenging farming conditions;
• Increased susceptibility of plants to attack by pests and diseases. Introduction, or increased range, population size and virulence of pests, affecting crop quality and with potential effects on food security and consumer health;
• Changing agricultural markets, with potential emphases on environmental issues, locally-sourced food, organic production, and lower impact living;
• Species which require a cold period (eg rhubarb) may need more intervention;
• Altered competition from overseas growers, where conditions may become less suitable, increasing the region’s competition.

Livestock farming

• Increased likelihood of heat stress affecting livestock, with implications for management, and for growth and reproduction rates;
• Possible changes in the timing of moving sheep between upland and lowland for sheep, and to the lengths of time, cattle and other animals are required to be kept in barns. Other farm practices, such as lambing and calving, may need to occur earlier to make the most of forage growth and suitable temperatures;
• Increased management of livestock in areas prone to fluvial flooding;
• Possible changes in the nutritional value of feed crops and forage, increased weed growth leading to reduced pasture quality, negative impacts of drought, heavy rainfall and waterlogging, and increased animal distress, and injury, resulting from storms and storm debris could all increase the need for intensively-farmed animals to receive supplementary feeding or housing;
• Increased potential for farm, and off-farm, based contamination of grazing land, with impacts on animal health;
• Increased susceptibility of livestock to infection as a result of changing practices and other climate induced stresses (such as from temperature). Also an increased prevalence of pests and disease vectors, and in disease transmission to livestock with potentially long-lasting effects. Intensively and extensively farmed species may require closer observation. In extreme situations, and more likely in rural areas, increased transmission of disease from livestock to humans may occur (eg hepatitis, salmonella, cryptosporidium and giardia);
• Depending on overseas markets and other market changes, increased need for food production with consequent conflicts over land use for tourism, industry, food production, and biodiversity.

Forestry, where present

• Changes in natural woodland through natural succession and migration of species;
• Increased temperature and drought stress on trees, and root die-back, premature defoliation and the death of newly planted trees due to waterlogging;
• Increased wind-throw in woodlands and plantations, and in particular increased leader loss. Tree stability will be influenced by the combination of increased winter wind speeds and annual volatility, and increased wet/dry soil cycles inducing stress;
• Increased tree vulnerability (reduced resilience) to pests and disease, and the potential for more pests including new ‘exotic’ species;
• Changing management processes in response to new tree species and changes in canopy and understorey, for instance increased weed growth in woodlands and nurseries;
• Possible opportunities to expand forestry onto floodplains and into flood risk areas to ameliorate flood risk, opportunities for woodland expansion linked with enhancing biodiversity, and increased demand for trees in urban areas to limit temperatures and provide shelter from wind;
• New opportunities for farmers and land managers to provide wood and timber for energy production, timber-framed buildings, and woodland sequestration schemes.

Tourism culture and leisure
Impacts affecting the tourism industry are addressed in all sections of this study. However, particular issues for the ongoing operation of the sector are:

• Increased demand for outdoor leisure and recreation and opportunities for developing the sector in response to increased numbers of domestic and overseas visitors visiting over an extended peak season;
• Heavier impact of visitation on natural habitats, including increased path erosion due to visitor numbers and reduced coverage by snow. Loss of footpaths and cycleways during extreme rainfall events and floods could however limit access to the countryside but also increase management costs;
• Increased pressure on destinations, including on shops, hotels and parking which could have negative or positive implications, and on local water supply and treatment, public transport and transport infrastructure which are more likely to have a negative effect in rural areas;
• Enhanced risk of moorland and forest fires due to increased visitation, as addressed under Public and voluntary services;
• Increased demand for accessible urban open space, and outdoor cafes and restaurants in both urban and rural areas;
• Management of conditions at sports venues may require increased irrigation or changes in grass cover or other surfaces;
• Crowd welfare and safety will require closer management during periods of extreme heat or storms and there may be an increased need to limit attendance to, or to cancel, outdoor sporting and cultural events such as festivals potentially causing increased insurance and other costs;
• Parkland and grounds management will be affected, particularly at cultural attractions, as considered in the Public and voluntary services section.

Manufacturing
Impacts on manufacturing will often be very process-specific. In-depth review will be required for specific sites and industries, but as well as impacts associated with premises, supply chains and employee comfort, as above, other impacts will include:

• Opportunities for involvement in engineering and manufacturing associated with wider measures to tackle climate emissions (eg renewable energies);
• Reductions in water available for industrial cleaning or cooling during periods of drought, and as a result of limitations imposed because of reduced groundwater recharge. Likely increases water abstraction costs could force reductions in manufacturing output or in process efficiency;
• Likely increases in the rate of some biologically-controlled industrial processes (eg fermentation and composting);
• Knock-on impacts, both positive and negative, of changes to agriculture and fisheries;
• Changes (likely to be reductions) in the shelf-life of products, requiring additional or amended storage facilities, and potentially affecting manufacturing processes;
• Increased risk of contamination through urban flooding in manufacturing and distribution parks – the Food and Drink sector will be particularly vulnerable;
• Market changes experienced by retailers will also be reflected in changing demands, and possibly altered competition, for clothing manufacturers.

Innovation and advanced technology
This sector will be principally affected by impacts on premises and employees, as above and elsewhere, but particular impacts include:

• Possible increase in flash flooding affecting new business parks and innovation centres;
• Disproportionate impact of IT infrastructure disruptions on digital industries;
• Increased need for temperature control of data storage sites. Significant risk of loss of data from storage centres in ground floor and basement locations;
• Opportunity for the region’s knowledge-economy and advanced technology spin-off companies associated with universities to develop adaptation measures to some of the impacts identified in this study and elsewhere.

Retail
As well as impacts on premises and employee and customer comfort and mobility as addressed above, changes in market demands and increased disruption of transport infrastructure and supply networks are likely to be the most significant impact on the retail sector. Other impacts include:

• Increased climate volatility may increase the range of products stocked by stores such as supermarkets which cater for a range of needs;
• Likely reduction in distance travelled by people to shop in hot weather, increasing opportunities for local shops and businesses, combined with reduced attractiveness of urban centre shopping as the urban heat island effect exacerbates periods of extreme heat. However possibly also increased visitor pressure to climate controlled sites during stormy or hot weather.

SMEs
Impacts are common with other sectors, since SMEs are present in all. However impacts are likely to be harder felt by SMEs as they are often disproportionately vulnerable to disruption, and business continuity planning is less well-integrated. As well as this, SMEs represent a varied and often hard-to-reach sector.

• Loss of electronic data (addressed above) is particularly likely affect SMEs where backup systems tend to be less well established;
• Any short term disruptions in supply, operations or distribution can result in clients establishing new supply chains and longer-term loss of business.

Other
Impacts on IT infrastructure, premises and staff as above will also affect the service and other sectors.

• Increasing weather-related damage insurance claims will have a significant effect on companies’ capacity to respond to claims, both financially and because increases in peak demand will challenge the limited numbers of staff available;
• The logistics sector is extremely susceptible to climate impacts on transport infrastructure and ports, addressed elsewhere;
• Increased susceptibility to flash flooding and water ingress on retail parks, and warehouse and distribution parks. Maintaining suitable temperatures in large warehouses may also present a problem;
• Knock-on impacts on distribution of changes to product supply (agriculture, manufacturing) and market demand.

 

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Description
The Hull and Humber Ports City Region, which covers the same area as this sub-region, contains the nationally-important Humber Ports complex (Goole, Immingham, Hull, Grimsby, and the Humber Wharves). The most northerly UK ports complex with overnight access to mainland Europe it handles around 15% of the UK’s cargo: 22% of imports, and more export cargo than any other UK ports complex. In 2006 they handled 91.1 million tonnes of freight and total traffic is projected to increase. They contribute almost 5% of regional GDP and employ over 12% of the sub-regional workforce (Humber Economic Partnership 2008). Associated with the ports, Immingham alone accounts for 25% of all UK rail freight (DfT).

The wider sub-region incorporates a range of economic activity and development, largely centred on market towns such as Hornsea and Bridlington. Urban renaissance on the south shore of the Humber concentrates on Grimsby, Cleethorpes and Scunthorpe.

Economic performance in the sub-region is strongly linked with social deprivation (addressed in the Health and Welfare section), including education and skills (Humber Economic Partnership 2008). In the period to 2016, Humber is expected to be the slowest growing sub-regional economy.

Within the sub-region there is a wide range of agricultural types, although the prevalence of pig farms is distinctive; the region accounts for nearly 30% of the UK’s pig herd, and this sub-region accounts for half of the region’s pigs (largely in the East Riding) and substantial amounts of cereal (Defra 2008a). The large tracts of rural land also offer potential for growing industrial crops (for processing for food and non-food use).

Although the size has declined fishing fleets operate from Bridlington, Hull and Grimsby. A diverse catch is generally landed at Grimsby whilst the Bridlington fleet is more focussed on crab and Hull lands more cod (Marine and Fisheries Agency 2006).

Tourism in the sub-region is largely focussed on the coast, especially around Bridlington, and wildlife tourism to the Humber Estuary. The Deep aquarium (submarium) is a key sub-regional visitor attraction. Significant retail centres include St Stephens (Hull) and sport venues include the KC stadium (home of Hull City premier league football team), Grimsby Town’s ground at Cleethorpes, and Scunthorpe United.

Levels of manufacturing employment in the city region are considerably higher than in the region as a whole and the national average. Food processing and manufacturing has historically been associated with this sub-region, in particular fish processing, wholesaling and retailing, and this remains a focus for development (eg Malmo Park (Hull)).

North Lincolnshire represents a particular concentration of manufacturing; in 2006 almost one third of people employed in the district were in manufacturing (Yorkshire Forward 2006). This reflects Scunthorpe’s association with traditional industry, being the UK’s largest steel processing centre (at the Corus works). Immingham and Goole (North, and Northeast Lincolnshire) have a strong presence of the Food and Drink cluster. Logistics, warehousing and cargo handling, in particular supporting industrial and manufacturing concerns and the port complex, is also a key sector for the sub-region.

The Humber Estuary also houses 20% of the UK’s oil refinery capacity, together with onshore pipelines for gas, and there are plans for a significant biofuel (ethanol and butanol) production facility, to use locally-grown wheat. Diversification of one of the region’s chemical plants (BP Saltend (Hull)) links strongly with potential future diversification of the agricultural sector.

Although the sub-region does not have such a high proportion of people employed within the service sector as elsewhere in Yorkshire and Humber, banking, finance and insurance has been increasingly important, expanding by over a third between 2001 and 2006 (Humber Economic Partnership 2008). Construction also increased over the same period, aligned in part with delivery of renaissance activity.

The sub-region’s mineral resources flank the Rivers Swale, Nidd, Aire, Tees and Derwent (Yorkshire and Humber Regional Aggregates Working Party). There is also marine aggregate extraction off the Humber estuary.

 

Impacts
A detailed assessment of impacts is reported at the regional level; for brevity impacts which are relevant to the Humber sub-region are summarised below. Impacts which are applicable to all businesses are also covered at the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Arable farming

• Extended growing season and increased crop yields, at least in the medium term;
• Opportunities, but potentially long term needs, to grow new crops which are currently unviable in the region, possibly in an extended arable area;
• An increased need for crop irrigation in summer, and through periods of extended drought, may lead to increased competition for water, between agriculture and domestic, industrial and habitat requirements;
• Soil management difficulties resulting from alternating drought and waterlogged conditions, including greater soil erosion from flooding  and from wind scour in dry conditions, and long-term reductions in soil productivity;
• Higher risk of contamination of farmland during flood events, possibly affecting human health;
• Greater chance and frequency of sea incursion onto land, through increased storminess, and subsequent loss of land for some purposes. Longer term loss of land, as a result of sealevel rise, and greater potential for saline intrusion into groundwater, with implications for irrigation;
• Increased susceptibility of plants to attack by pests and diseases because of other climate stresses, combined with the introduction, or increased range, population size and virulence of pests. This means pest and disease control could become a greater proportion of work;
• Opportunities for farm diversification to provide biomass for energy production. Changing agricultural markets, with potential emphases on environmental issues, locally-sourced food, organic production, and lower impact living, and altered competition from overseas growers, where conditions may become less suitable, could increase the sub-region’s competitiveness.

Livestock farming

• Increased likelihood of heat stress affecting livestock, with implications for management, and for growth and reproduction rates;
• Increased need for water provision for more intensively farmed animals;
• Possible changes in the timing of moving sheep between upland and lowland for sheep, and to the lengths of time, cattle and other animals are required to be kept in barns. Other farm practices, such as lambing and calving, may need to occur earlier to make the most of forage growth and suitable temperatures;
• Possible changes in the nutritional value of feed crops and forage, increased weed growth leading to reduced pasture quality, negative impacts of drought, heavy rainfall and waterlogging, and increased animal distress, and injury, resulting from storms and storm debris could all increase the need for intensively-farmed animals to receive supplementary feeding or housing;
• Increased management of livestock in areas prone to fluvial or tidal flooding. Sea-level rise will increase the frequency and extent of inundation of forage land and over the medium to long term may render some particularly low-lying areas;
• Increased potential for farm, and off-farm, based contamination of grazing land, with impacts on animal health;
• Increased susceptibility of livestock to infection as a result of changing practices and other climate induced stresses (such as from temperature). Also an increased prevalence of pests and disease vectors, and disease transmission to livestock. In extreme situations increased transmission to humans;
• Changes to domestic and overseas markets with potential for an increased need for food production with consequent conflicts over land use.

Forestry, where present

• Enhanced yield, varying between species, and changes in natural woodland through natural succession and migration of species;
• Increased temperature and drought stress and reduced winter hardening of trees. Particular impacts will be felt by pre-economic trees (5-20 years);
• Increased wind-throw in woodlands and plantations. Tree stability will be influenced by the combination of increased winter wind speeds and annual volatility, and increased wet/dry soil cycles;
• Increased tree vulnerability (reduced resilience) to pests and disease, and the potential for more pests including new ‘exotic’ species, particularly imported through the Humber ports;
• Current management practices may not be appropriate to changes in tree species, and practices such as clear-felling may increase soil erosion rates;
• Possible opportunities to expand forestry onto floodplains and into flood risk areas to ameliorate flood risk, opportunities for woodland expansion linked with enhancing biodiversity, and increased demand for trees in urban areas to limit temperatures and provide shelter from wind;
• New opportunities for farmers and land managers to provide wood and timber for energy production, timber-framed buildings, and woodland sequestration schemes.

Fisheries

• Changing distribution of current market fish, with an increased abundance in UK waters of warm water fish (eg red mullet) and decline in eg cod;
• Likely need to fish new areas, or change target species;
• Possible increased susceptibility of fish species to pests and diseases;
• Increased Harmful Algal Blooms with implications for market fish and human health.

Tourism culture and leisure
Impacts affecting the tourism industry are addressed in all sections of this study. However, particular issues for the sector are:

• Opportunities for developing Yorkshire and Humber’s tourism culture and leisure sectors, in response to increased numbers of domestic and overseas visitors over an extended peak season;
• Heavier impact of visitation on natural habitats, including increased path erosion due to visitor numbers and reduced coverage by snow. Loss of footpaths and cycleways during extreme rainfall events and floods could however limit access to the countryside but also increase management costs;
• Increased pressure on destinations, including on shops, hotels and parking which could have negative or positive implications, and on local water supply and treatment, public transport and transport infrastructure which are more likely to have a negative effect in rural areas;
• Sea-level rise and increases in storm surges will affect attractions at the coast, with potential losses in beach space and coastal habitats. Increased urban flooding in coastal areas could lead to pollution and the loss of Blue Flag status;
• Larger numbers of visitors also increase the risks of the import and spread of pests and diseases affecting many other sectors;
• Management of conditions at sports venues may require increased irrigation or changes in grass cover or other surfaces. This will be a particular issue at heritage attractions.

Manufacturing
Impacts on manufacturing will often be very process-specific. In-depth review will be required for specific sites and industries, but as well as impacts associated with premises, supply chains and employee comfort, as above, other impacts will include:

• Opportunities for involvement in engineering and manufacturing associated with wider measures to tackle climate emissions (eg renewable energies);
• Reductions in water available for industrial cleaning or cooling during periods of drought, and as a result of limitations imposed because of reduced groundwater recharge. Together with likely increased costs associated with water abstraction this has the potential to force reductions in manufacturing output or in process efficiency;
• Likely increases in the rate of some biologically-controlled industrial processes (eg fermentation and composting);
• Possibility of increased prevalence of toxins and bacterial contamination in food processing and manufacturing, particularly of shellfish. Also changes in the shelf-life of products, requiring additional or amended storage facilities, and potentially affecting manufacturing processes;
• Knock-on impacts, both positive and negative, of changes to agriculture and fisheries;
• Increased risk of contamination through urban flooding in manufacturing and distribution parks – the Food and Drink sector will be particularly vulnerable;
• Market changes experienced by retailers will also be reflected in changing demands, and possibly altered competition, for clothing manufacturers.

Innovation and advanced technology
This sector will be principally affected by impacts on premises and employees, as above and elsewhere. However, other particular impacts include:

• Possible increases in flash flooding affecting new business parks and innovation centres;
• Disproportionate impact of IT infrastructure disruptions on digital industries, including an increased need for temperature control of data storage sites and significant risk of loss of data from storage centres in ground floor and basement locations;
• A significant opportunity for the region’s companies to develop adaptation measures to some of the impacts identified in this study and elsewhere.

Retail
As well as impacts on premises and employee and customer comfort and mobility as addressed above, changes in market demands and increased disruption of transport infrastructure and supply networks are likely to be the most significant impact on the retail sector. Other impacts include:

• Increased climate volatility may increase the range of products stocked by stores such as supermarkets which cater for a range of needs;
• Likely reduction attractiveness of urban centre shopping as the urban heat island effect exacerbates extreme heat; however possibly also increased visitor pressure to climate controlled sites during stormy or hot weather.

SMEs
Impacts are common with other sectors, since SMEs are present in all. However impacts are likely to be harder felt by SMEs as they are often disproportionately vulnerable to disruption, and business continuity planning is less well-integrated. As well as this, SMEs represent a varied and often hard-to-reach sector.

• Loss of electronic data (addressed above) is particularly likely to affect SMEs where backup systems tend to be less well established;
• Any short term disruptions in supply, operations or distribution can result in clients establishing new supply chains and longer-term loss of business.

Other
Impacts on IT infrastructure, premises and staff as above will also affect the service and other sectors.

• The logistics sector is extremely susceptible to climate impacts on transport infrastructure and ports, addressed elsewhere, and to changes to product supply chains (agriculture, manufacturing) and market demand;
• Increased susceptibility to flash flooding and water ingress on retail parks, and warehouse and distribution parks. Regulating temperatures in large warehouses may also present a problem;
• Impacts on any developing CCS industry are likely to be common to those experienced by current gas supply networks.

 

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Description
South Yorkshire has undergone significant restructuring, supported by EU Objective 1 Status (funding aimed at the most deprived regions of the EU) since 2000. The Sheffield City Region covers nine districts, including four Local Authorities south of the sub-region (NE Derbyshire, Derbyshire Dales, Bassetlaw and Chesterfield). Renewal activity is focused on the urban areas of Barnsley, Rotherham, and Doncaster (particularly focussing the East Coast mainline, and the new Robin Hood Doncaster Sheffield airport).

Despite overall reductions in manufacturing, steel production remains an important industry in Sheffield, and output represents an increasing proportion of the UK’s production (Yorkshire Forward 2006). The Regional Economic Strategy reinforces the focus on manufacturing and a future focus on producing high value goods (Yorkshire Forward 2006). Development at AMP Waverley (Rotherham) will provide greater facilities for businesses in the Advanced Engineering and Metals cluster.

The sub-region’s tourism is both urban and rurally focused. Sheffield, for example, allows easy access to the Peak District. A project to restore Wentworth Castle will also enhance cultural/heritage resources. Phase one – focused on the gardens, parkland and structure – is complete. The sub-region also benefits from a range of cultural assets, including those associated with sports such as football teams, rugby league and union, and athletics facilities including the Don Valley stadium.

Investment in Sheffield’s E-Campus and Barnsley’s Digital Media Centre is intended to support the Digital Industries cluster. Links with universities, including in Sheffield and Barnsley (a campus of Huddersfield University), and between education providers and business are also developing.

Meadowhall, outside Sheffield is a major regional retail centre, housing over 280 stores and with a further retail park nearby. Other significant retail centres include Frenchgate in Doncaster, Crystal Peaks in Sheffield and The Mall in Barnsley. Retail is also a key development sector for Sheffield and Doncaster.

SMEs make up the overwhelming proportion of the businesses in the region, and as such are well-represented in the sub-region and across most categories of industry.

The sub-region’s mineral resources, in particular river sand and gravel, largely flank the River Don; the Rivers Idle and Torne to the south also provide some resource (Yorkshire and Humber Regional Aggregates Working Party). South Yorkshire produces around 10% of the regional total.

Air travel is becoming an increasingly important economic activity in the sub-region, with the presence of Robin Hood Doncaster Sheffield airport which opened in 2005.

 

Impacts
A detailed assessment of impacts on each sector is reported at the regional level; for brevity impacts relevant to South Yorkshire sub-region are summarised below. Those impacts which are applicable to all businesses are also addressed at the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Arable farming, where present

• An extended growing season and increased crop yields, at least in the medium term;
• Opportunities, but potentially long term needs, to grow new crops which are currently unviable in the region, possibly in an extended arable area;
• An increased need for crop irrigation in summer, and through periods of extended drought, may lead to increased competition for water, between agriculture and domestic, industrial and habitat requirements;
• Soil management difficulties resulting from alternating drought and waterlogged conditions, including greater soil erosion from flooding  and from wind scour in dry conditions, and long-term reductions in soil productivity;
• Increased susceptibility of plants to attack by pests and diseases because of other climate stresses, combined with the introduction, or increased range, population size and virulence of pests. This means pest and disease control could become a greater proportion of work;
• Opportunities for farm diversification to provide biomass for energy production. Changing agricultural markets, with potential emphases on environmental issues, locally-sourced food, organic production, and lower impact living and altered competition from overseas growers, where conditions may become less suitable, could increase the region’s competitiveness.

Livestock farming

• Increased likelihood of heat stress affecting livestock, with implications for management, and for growth and reproduction rates;
• Increased need for water provision for more intensively farmed;
• Possible changes in the timing of moving sheep between upland and lowland for sheep, and to the lengths of time, cattle and other animals are required to be kept in barns. Other farm practices, such as lambing and calving, may need to occur earlier to make the most of forage growth and suitable temperatures;
• Possible changes in the nutritional value of feed crops and forage, increased weed growth leading to reduced pasture quality, negative impacts of drought, heavy rainfall and waterlogging, and increased animal distress, and injury, resulting from storms and storm debris could all increase the need for intensively-farmed animals to receive supplementary feeding or housing;
• Increased potential for farm, and off-farm, based contamination of grazing land, with impacts on animal health;
• Increased susceptibility of livestock to infection as a result of changing practices and other climate induced stresses (such as from temperature). Also an increased prevalence of pests and disease vectors, and in disease transmission to livestock with potentially long-lasting effects. Intensively and extensively farmed species may require closer observation. In extreme situations, and more likely in rural areas, increased transmission of disease from livestock to humans may;
• Depending on overseas markets and other market changes, increased need for food production with consequent conflicts over land use for tourism, industry, food production, and biodiversity.

Forestry, where present

• Changes in natural woodland through natural succession and migration of species;
• Increased temperature and drought stress and reduced winter hardening of trees. Particular impacts will be felt by pre-economic trees (5-20 years);
• Increased wind-throw in woodlands and plantations, and in particular increased leader loss. Tree stability will be influenced by the combination of increased winter wind speeds and annual volatility, and increased wet/dry soil cycles inducing stress;
• Increased tree vulnerability (reduced resilience) to pests and disease, and the potential for more pests including new ‘exotic’ species (eg through the Humber ports);
• Changing management processes in response to new tree species and changes in canopy and understorey, for instance increased weed growth in woodlands and nurseries;
• Management practices, such as clear-felling, may increase soil erosion rates under increased winter and storm rainfall further enhancing tree instability and stress;
• Possible opportunities to expand forestry onto floodplains and into flood risk areas to ameliorate flood risk, opportunities for woodland expansion linked with enhancing biodiversity, and increased demand for trees in urban areas to limit temperatures and provide shelter from wind;
• New opportunities for farmers and land managers to provide wood and timber for energy production, timber-framed buildings, and woodland sequestration schemes.

Tourism culture and leisure
Representing a wide range of cultural and heritage attractions as well as the natural environment and landscape, impacts affecting the tourism industry are addressed in all sections of this study. However, particular issues include:

• Increased demand for outdoor leisure and recreation and opportunities for developing the sector in response to increased numbers of domestic and overseas visitors visiting over an extended peak season;
• Heavier impact of visitation on natural habitats, including increased path erosion;
• Loss of footpaths and cycleways during extreme rainfall events and floods could limit access to the countryside and increase management costs;
• Enhanced risk of moorland and forest fires due to increased visitation, as addressed under Public and voluntary services;
• Increased pressure on destinations, enhancing current problems associated with honeypot sites, increasing pressure on local services, including shops, hotels and parking which could have negative or positive implications, and on local water supply and treatment, public transport and transport infrastructure which are more likely to have a negative effect in rural areas;
• Increased demand for accessible urban open space, and outdoor cafes and restaurants in both urban and rural areas;
• Management of conditions at sports venues may require increased irrigation or changes in grass cover or other surfaces. Parkland and grounds management will be affected, particularly at heritage and cultural attractions, as considered in the Public and voluntary services section;
• Crowd welfare and safety will require closer management during periods of extreme heat or storms and there may be an increased need to limit attendance to, or to cancel, outdoor sporting and cultural events such as festivals potentially causing increased insurance and other costs.

Manufacturing
Impacts on manufacturing will often be very process-specific, and in-depth review will be required on a site-by-site and industry-type basis. However, as well as impacts associated with premises and employee comfort, as above, a number of other measures should be considered:

• Opportunities for involvement in engineering and manufacturing associated with wider measures to tackle climate emissions (eg renewable energies);
• Reductions in water available for industrial cleaning or cooling during periods of drought, and likely increase in costs associated with water abstraction and use;
• Likely increases in the rate of some biologically-controlled industrial processes (eg fermentation and composting);
• Knock-on impacts of changes to agriculture and fisheries;
• Changes (likely to be reductions) in the shelf-life of products, requiring additional or amended storage facilities, and potentially affecting manufacturing processes;
• Market changes experienced by retailers will also be reflected in changing demands, and possibly altered competition, for clothing manufacturers.

Innovation and advanced technology
This sector will be principally affected by impacts on premises and employees, with other impacts including:

• Possible increase in flash flooding affecting new business parks and innovation centres;
• Disproportionate impact of IT infrastructure disruptions on digital industries;
• Increased need for temperature control of data storage sites, and a significant risk of loss of data from storage centres in ground floor and basement locations;
• Opportunity for the region’s companies to develop adaptation measures to some of the impacts identified in this study and elsewhere.

Retail
As well as impacts on premises and employee and customer comfort and mobility as addressed above, changes in market demands and increased disruption of transport infrastructure and supply networks are likely to be the most significant impact on the retail sector. Other impacts include:

• Increased climate volatility may increase the range of products stocked by stores such as supermarkets which cater for a range of needs;
• Vulnerability of retail centres to increased flooding, as at Meadowhall in 2007 when the River Don flooded and the centre was closed for almost a week.
• Likely reduction in distance travelled by people to shop in hot weather, increasing opportunities for local shops and businesses, combined with reduced attractiveness of urban centre shopping as the urban heat island effect exacerbates periods of extreme heat. However possibly also increased visitor pressure to climate controlled sites during stormy or hot weather.

SMEs
Impacts are common with other sectors, since SMEs are present in all. However impacts are likely to be harder felt by SMEs as they are often disproportionately vulnerable to disruption, and business continuity planning is less well-integrated. As well as this, SMEs represent a varied and often hard-to-reach sector.

• Loss of electronic data (addressed above) is particularly likely to affect SMEs where backup systems tend to be less well established;
• Any short term disruptions in supply, operations or distribution can result in clients establishing new supply chains and longer-term loss of business.

Other
Impacts on IT infrastructure, premises and staff as above will also affect the service and other sectors.

• Increasing weather-related damage insurance claims will have a significant effect on companies’ capacity to respond to claims, both financially and because increases in peak demand will challenge the limited numbers of staff available;
• The logistics sector is extremely susceptible to climate impacts on transport infrastructure and ports, addressed elsewhere;
• Increased susceptibility to flash flooding and water ingress on retail parks, and warehouse and distribution parks. Maintaining suitable temperatures in large warehouses may also present problems;
• Knock-on impacts on distribution of changes to product supply (agriculture, manufacturing) and market demand.

 

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