This section provides a summary overview of the key impacts in the Yorkshire and Humber region by 2050, and adaptation actions proposed.

Due to similarities between sub-regions these overviews address priority impacts and adaptations only. They are not intended to be comprehensive and should not be read in isolation. More detail relating to impacts within a particular sector of interest can be found in the sections of this site which address the following themes:

• Flooding;
• Coastal Erosion;
• Groundwater and Minewater;
• Business and Economy;
• Public and voluntary services;
• Infrastructure and utilities;
• Biodiversity;
• Health and welfare.

 

The following information summarises the main impacts for the region identified within the thematic sections of the report.

Increases in the magnitude and intensity of rainfall events will increase river flows and flooding. Properties currently at risk will be at an increasing risk of more frequent flooding, and the number of properties at risk will rise. An increase in high intensity events will result in more ‘flashy’ flood events. In extensive river systems across the region, including the Ouse, the Aire and the Don, both intense summer rainfall, and increased winter saturation of the moorland areas of the Dales and North York Moors, will increase the likelihood of floods. Increasing flood levels and frequency are likely to put additional strain on critical defences.

Rising sea levels and increased storminess will also increase tidal flooding problems around the Humber Estuary due to overtopping and bypassing of the defences.

The majority of the existing urban network carries the combined flows of household waste and rainwater. Older systems are not usually designed for increased future flows and foul sewers may well become overloaded during large or intense rainfall events. This could lead to flooding of properties and roads. Any blockages within the system due to general debris, for example from storms, will also exacerbate problems and could lead to additional flooding.

Drainage problems are exacerbated by high tide or river levels, when drainage outfalls may become restricted or tide-locked (causing flows to back-up and flood). This is a particular problem in Kingston-upon-Hull, where 90% of the area is below high tide level.

A range of existing weather impacts at the coast are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, including overtopping of coastal defences by waves leading to more frequent flooding of promenades, properties and other assets. Increased erosion of softer areas, due to higher wave and tidal energy particularly during storms, will lead to loss of land, assets and habitats. Over time a changing profile of the coastline may alter sediment movement and other coastal processes, and increase coastal habitat ‘squeeze’.

Reductions in groundwater levels due to reduced recharge rates could have important implications for river flow, particularly in summer, in areas towards the south of the region underlain by the Chalk and Corallian Limestone aquifers. This could have implications for some sensitive wetlands reliant on groundwater flows. Higher storage in the other principal aquifers (the Magnesian Limestone and the Sherwood Sandstone) means they are likely to be relatively robust to climate change.

Increased winter rainfall and higher short-term recharge rates mean there is some risk of groundwater derived floods from the Chalk aquifer. Localised exacerbation of natural slope failures, particularly around river and stream banks, cannot be ruled out under the future climate. Some risks associated with historic spoil heaps may remain in remote areas of the Yorkshire Pennines. Risks are considered negligible in areas overlying the Limestone and Sandstone aquifers.

Recent outbreaks have occurred at Sheephouse Wood and Jackson Bridge (both South Yorkshire), associated with intense multi-day rainfall events. The projected increase in the number of these rainfall events in the future could lead to damage to infrastructure and significant pollution to water courses. The most likely locations for these are from shallower workings around Sheffield and Wakefield. Existing pumping schemes may also require greater capacity. A risk of outbreak is also suspected in the headwaters of the rivers Nidd, Wharfe and Swale.

These can be both positive and negative, are not sector dependent, and can apply across different sizes and types of organisation. Business premises, schools, places of worship and heritage sites and visitor attractions are likely to be impacted in similar ways. Changes in climate will affect both existing buildings and the requirements of new buildings. Particular impacts are expected to include increased internal temperatures; increased water penetration through weaknesses in the building fabric leading to the increased potential for rot and fungal attack; overloaded guttering and drainage; increased flood risk from fluvial, tidal and urban flooding; and increased storm damage and wind-related disruption. Where urban flooding occurs, contamination will be a concern. Localised instances of subsidence also cannot be ruled out, although most of the vulnerable zones are in sparsely populated areas

Future comfort and safety are an issue for many industries and within the built environment issues such as increased temperature, and the potential for fungal growth, could affect health, comfort, and employee / pupil performance. Employees and customers in outdoor environments could also suffer greater incidence of heat stress, and where working practices and behaviour change in response to warmer temperatures there is potential for greater exposure to UV light with further implications for health.

The effects of transport disruption on commuting, and on customer access, are also secondary impacts.

Climate change will extend the growing season and, combined with increased fertilisation from elevated CO2 levels, crop and tree yields can be expected to increase. There is also potential for growing new and in particular more specialist crops. However over the longer term more significant adaptation to heat resilient cultivars or species may be required as current economic species become unviable. This is especially of concern in longer-term industries such as forestry. Fisheries will also experience changing yields as traditional catch species are replaced by new, warmer water species.

Opportunities are likely to include diversification of farmland and woodland management to provide woody biomass for energy production, timber for use in more sustainable timber-framed buildings, and UK-based carbon sequestration (offset) schemes. The region is also well-placed to respond to an increased focus on issues such as locally-sourced or organic production. As climate change affects growing conditions overseas other opportunities may become available to farmers and growers in the region.

Increased summer temperatures, reduced summer rainfall, and more erratic rainfall patterns are expected to reduce the amount of water available for crop irrigation and for livestock. This will increase the demand for piped water for intensively farmed animals, and irrigation, and may increase competition between agricultural needs, domestic and industrial requirements, and wider needs of the region’s biodiversity.

Changing weather patterns will potentially limit access to land and increase disruption around key farming periods such as sowing and harvesting, with consequences for yield. Animal movements between upland and lowland, or between sheds and fields, and other farm practices such as lambing and calving may need to occur at different times to make the most of forage growth and suitable temperatures. Wider changes in many managed areas will require altered maintenance and intervention regimes.

Periods of drought alternating with more intense rainfall is likely to exacerbate problems with soil management and increase the occurrence of challenging farming conditions, such as waterlogged land. Animals may also require supplementary feeding or housing to prevent them trampling fields.

Greater erosion of soil from fields as a result of heavy rain or wind could also reduce topsoil cover, particularly on friable sandy soils (for example parts of the Vale of York) affecting productivity over time. Farming and forestry practices (such as clear-felling) could exacerbate this. Salinisation of soils may also occur, particularly in low-lying areas, as a result of drought conditions and increased irrigation.

Increased flooding, inundation of coastal agricultural areas, and increased storminess and storm surge heights, can reduce land quality and spread contamination with implications for both animal and human health. In the shorter term, tidal flooding impacts may increase risks to livestock or crops in susceptible areas, and over the medium to long term may render some areas (in particular around the Humber) unsuitable for continued cultivation.

Changes to temperature, flooding frequency and other climate parameters could have an indirect effect through increasing the range or virulence of pests, and vectors of diseases such as bluetongue. Larger pest populations can develop as they survive warmer winters, and new ‘exotic’ pests may also be introduced. Climate-related stresses will also increase susceptibility to pests and diseases and in extreme situations there could be increased transmission of diseases to humans. Areas attracting large numbers of visitors (including tourists) will be more susceptible to the import and spread of pests and disease, also increasing pressure on the region’s biodiversity.

Drought conditions combined with an expected increase in outdoor leisure is projected to increase the occurrence of fires in forests, parks and moorlands. As well as direct economic impacts this also has implications for Fire and Rescue Services, and in particular on resourcing. Tackling rural fires will also be more challenging in areas experiencing water shortage.

There are opportunities for woodland expansion and extension across the region. Strategically positioned woodland can significantly increase floodplain storage and reduce downstream flood flows. In urban areas trees can limit local climatic variations, especially through suppressing local temperatures and providing shelter from wind. Where trees are close to buildings and significant infrastructure, dealing with risks of damage and disruption from falling trees and debris will require close management.

Higher summer temperatures are likely to increase demand for outdoor leisure and recreation, representing an opportunity for the region’s tourism sector. UK destinations are expected to become more attractive to tourists from the UK and abroad, and this may be further enhanced by legislation enacted to tackle climate change (eg personal carbon allowances). Warmer temperatures may also increase visitation in the ‘shoulder’ periods reducing the seasonality of incomes associated with this sector.

Although increasing revenue for services including shops, hotels and parking, higher levels of visitation could increase conflict between recreational and other demands, including stressing transport and water treatment/supply infrastructure. Path erosion (through overuse) and loss during extreme rainfall events and floods are other possible impacts, and changes to the natural environment may affect the attractiveness of particular areas (eg landscapes suffering drought, or where there is no winter snow cover, may reduce visitation).

Sea-level rise and storm surges are also likely to have a greater impact on tourism due to the number of resorts and other attractions – such as the wildlife habitats of the Humber - at the coast. Losses due to flooding, inundation or storm damage, and in particular reductions in beach bathing space and coastal habitat integrity will have dramatic effects. Increases in urban flooding could also affect the quality of bathing waters (eg Blue Flag status), and affect the attractiveness of tourist areas.

Golf clubs and other professional and amenity sports and leisure venues will find increasing difficulty maintaining conditions during the summer when irrigation water may be limited. Conversely winter waterlogging of pitches and courses will be another concern, and the alternating wet and dry periods will require adapted management regimes. At heritage and amenity sites fine lawns may well demand year-round mowing and lawn care, raising maintenance costs or requiring changes to public expectation. Outdoor events and festivals may become increasingly vulnerable to disruption and cancellation due to extreme weather, and crowd welfare, particularly during periods of extreme heat or storms, may require changes in safety procedures.

The need for technological solutions to elements of climate mitigation, and adaptation as identified in this study and elsewhere, suggest an increasing role for the research and development sector. With a strong base in, and future focus on, manufacturing, as well as existing and developing links with universities, Yorkshire and Humber is well placed to respond. This may offset any more negative effects on larger industrial processes.

By far the largest proportion of businesses across all sectors in the region are SMEs and although impacts will be felt across sectors, there is expected to be more of an influence on smaller companies. SMEs often operate from a single or small number of sites and as such they are often more vulnerable to any disruptions and changes in markets.

Disruption to IT infrastructure will also particularly affect heavily-reliant industries. The large data storage centres associated with digital media and the creative industries (regional economic growth sectors) are susceptible both to hot temperatures and particularly to flooding. The common location of servers and data storage in ground floor and basement locations creates a significant vulnerability.

The retail sector is well-used to responding to changing demands due to weather events. The implications for manufacturers, suppliers and retailers, are well understood. Since most climate changes will occur over longer timescales the retail sector is expected to be reasonably resilient, although increased volatility may mean that more diverse ranges will need to be stocked.

Reductions in ice and snow could lead to fewer road accidents, although these impacts are unclear. Increasing summer and extreme temperatures are however likely to increase the need to respond to people suffering the effects of drought and heat stress. Increased storminess could also lead to increase in call-out for rescue from floods and fallen trees.

Although increasing composting rates, increased temperatures could have an impact on the future operation and development of waste management facilities. Biodegradable waste may require more collections due to increased decomposition rates, odour and pests, and increased storminess could lead to increased dispersal of particulates and bioaerosols. Enhanced wet-dry cycles could increase the risk of slope instability on existing and closed waste management sites. Management and treatment processes will also need to be reviewed to deal with increased flood risk and more variable waste moisture content. Health risks to workers from increased temperatures, and pathogen and vermin activity, also cannot be ruled out.

Increased temperatures will have an effect on materials such as road surfaces, rail tracks, and overhead cables resulting in disruption and enforced safety speed limits. Parts of both the road and rail network are already vulnerable to windthrown trees, poles etc causing disruption. Wind-blown debris can also lead to blockages that exacerbate localised flooding. Increased winter and extreme rainfall will trigger more slippages in road cuttings and embankments, exacerbating scour around bridge abutments.

Although lower snowfall may reduce the demand for snow clearance, an increase in marginal temperatures may increase the need for precautionary and post-event gritting and salting of roads. The region will also continue to experience sub-zero temperatures and relatively heavy snowfall. Inland rail tracks, trans-Pennine roads and rural roads, particularly in upland areas, will all continue to be affected. Transport infrastructure is also critically vulnerable to flooding, and its networked nature means that there are significant knock-on effects on all other areas covered by this study.

Increased winter and extreme rainfall will increase pressure on piped wastewater networks, as design capacities are more frequently exceeded with pollution and public health consequences. Conversely reduced summer rainfall will affect river flows and water volumes in reservoirs. However the region is particularly well supplied with water and Yorkshire Water does not project a resource deficit despite increased demand on water supply for drinking and other domestic uses, and for agricultural use and livestock. Despite this specific reservoirs, especially smaller ones in South Yorkshire, will be vulnerable to drought and some rivers may face tighter controls on abstraction.

Increases in temperature are likely to accelerate chemical and biological treatment processes for both water and sewage treatment. However sustained high temperatures could increase incidences of cryptosporidium in water, particularly if temperatures rise soon after intense rainfall events during have contaminated watercourses. More variable river flows will also affect effluent dilution, and higher treatment standards may be required.

Increases in winter average wind speeds (and also extreme wind speeds) would make steel lattice towers and transmission lines more susceptible to failure. Energy and telecommunications infrastructure is also extremely vulnerable to flooding. A major consequence of any failure is the effect on other sectors, including supply disruptions to pumping stations, hospitals and water and sewage treatment works, as well as to businesses and households, and loss of communications during emergency responses.

Climate change models predict different outcomes for biodiversity, which is not surprising given the complexity of interactions between different species and habitats. However it is clear that those species which can disperse and colonise different areas easily will have the advantage over those which cannot. In general the direct impacts are likely to be:

• Changes in the timings of seasonal events (phenology), potentially leading to loss of synchrony between species and their food;
• Shifts in suitable climate conditions for individual species affecting both abundance and range;
• Changes in habitat composition.

Upland hay meadows are unique to Northern England and, although losses to date are not related to climate, future distribution is likely to be restricted to higher parts of the Pennines. This fragmentation will also be exacerbated by the likely encroachment of generalist species into habitats (for instance an increased range of grassland species and insects, and consequent decline in more specialist species).

Increased winter rainfall may increase waterlogging, but although high rainfall does help sustain bog habitats, more intense rainfall is likely to increase runoff into streams and could enhance erosion. This is particularly the case when combined with other pressures such as recreation. Lowland wet meadow, already under threat from drainage, is likely to deteriorate further due to drought and enhanced abstraction. Changes in coastal processes may also have a detrimental impact as sea level rise and changes in erosion could enhance habitat loss, with knock-on impacts on species which use the habitats.

Rising temperatures in streams will increase biological respiration and may result in periods of anoxia (no oxygen). More variable seasonal flows are likely to affect habitats which have adapted to less volatile conditions, in particular as high summer temperatures are also likely to reduce stream flow but increased rainfall is likely to flush sediments and other pollutants through the system. As water availability, flow and quality are all likely to change, the viability of some freshwater habitats and species may be affected.

Air pollution episodes, especially during extreme heat events in urban areas, are expected to increase the incidence of complications associated with respiratory illnesses such as asthma, and with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. More frequent intense rainfall, and flooding affecting housing, is expected to worsen mental health concerns such as stress and depression. Acute and chronic impacts on mental wellbeing are especially evident during and following flood events and often persist far beyond the flood itself. There is also expected to be an increase in acute health problems, including heat stress, exhaustion and dehydration, particularly during extreme heatwaves.

As climate change is expected to exacerbate current problems, those in areas already identified as deprived, or people/communities identified as vulnerable, will be most severely affected.

Fuel poverty and cold-related conditions, injuries and mortality may decline during winter due to milder temperatures. However summer heat waves will make homes uncomfortable, particularly for the elderly and vulnerable, and as temperatures rise conditions associated with insects, vermin, and vector- and water-borne diseases will be more widespread. Behavioural change in response to warmer temperatures, and more outdoor leisure and working, could potentially increase the number of skin cancer cases from UV exposure.

Hospitals and care homes across the region may find it increasingly difficult to provide core services due to rising summer temperatures and associated conditions. If buildings have difficulty maintaining comfortable temperatures patients will be placed under additional stress, possibly exacerbating their conditions. Increased volatility and severe weather may impact mobile care and support services (eg home help and meals on wheels) with serious implications for vulnerable individuals, particularly in rural areas.

 

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| North Yorkshire | West Yorkshire | Humber | South Yorkshire |

 

North Yorkshire is a largely rural sub-region, containing both the Yorkshire Moors (to the north-east) and Yorkshire Dales (to the north-west) National Parks, as well as significant plantation forestry. The coastal zone contains the tourism and fishing towns of Scarborough and Whitby, both of which depend greatly on the visitor economy. To the south of the sub-region are Harrogate, Tadcaster and the City of York, as well as the recently-closed coal mining complex around Selby.

The principal sectors which will be affected by projected climate change include agriculture and forestry and leisure and tourism, as well as the public services and the food and drink industry. The coastal zone will also be impacted by rising sea-levels and altered storminess.

There have been a range of flooding events in the sub-region in the past, including relatively recent events at Ripon and Boroughbridge, and Skipton, and wider locations across the sub-region, including urban sewer flooding at Thirsk. Increased rainfall in the winter, and in particular in more extreme events throughout the year, means that flooding in vulnerable areas is likely to increase, with the potential also for flooding in new areas. The importance of existing flood defences is clear, and was demonstrated recently in limiting the impacts of flooding in York.

The North Yorkshire coast will experience both cliff and beach erosion due to sea-level rise and increased storminess. This could lead to instability on some cliffs increasing the incidence of landslips and mudslides (particularly around the north of the sub-region). Past slips may also be reactivated by increased rainfall, and erosion and deposition processes may also result in erosion of beaches and/or siltation around harbours such as Whitby.

Existing coastal defences may be overtopped by waves, causing flooding to assets including homes and businesses, caravan parks, and agricultural and amenity land, as well as some roads and coastal paths. Where river or coastal flooding results in increased pollution there are clear implications for the sub-region’s tourist beaches. Coastal inundation and consequential losses could be a long term problem in some areas, leading to local refugees and increasing pressure on social care in other areas.

Although reduced summer rainfall and river flows could significantly affect recharge of the limestone aquifer in the south of the region, the sandstone aquifer is less likely to be affected. However there is a possibility that reduced groundwater levels could lead to subsidence in sparsely populated areas of the Yorkshire Dales.

Arable and forestry areas are expected to experience longer growing seasons and higher yields, at least in the medium term. Increased temperatures may also bring opportunities to grow new crops, or increase yields from crops currently growing under marginal conditions. There will be opportunities for farm diversification into biomass production and in response to changing markets, although the increased potential for summer drought may mean that irrigation will be required to realise these yields and limitations on water use may confound this. Livestock needs are another consideration. In warmer, and in particular extremely hot, conditions, animals may need supplementary water in both intensive lowland and extensive upland systems.

Drought, erosion by wind and heavy rainfall, and the risks of salination due to increased irrigation are all possible future concerns which may affect the productivity of land. Land quality may also be affected if flood events spread contamination, particularly from past mining (especially metal mining) operations.

Elements of climate change are also expected to increase the challenges posed by pests and diseases affecting arable and forestry crops, and livestock. Any impacts on animal or crop welfare have consequent effects on the need for intervention and on the value of products. In extreme situations, and more likely in rural areas, there is the potential for increased transmission of disease to humans (eg hepatitis, cryptosporidium and giardia).

Wind damage, and in particular increased leader loss will be a particular issue in plantations and woodlands, with tree stability additionally affected by increased wet/dry soil cycles. An increased incidence of forest and moorland fires is expected, because of the combination of drier summer conditions and an increase in outdoor leisure and tourism.

Fisheries, an historic industry in the sub-region, will also experience changes in yield and catch, as traditional species are replaced by warmer water species.

The tourism industry is expected to experience increased demand, in particular for outdoor recreation, and there are opportunities to develop the sector to accommodate increased numbers of domestic and overseas visitors over an extended season. Alongside increased employment opportunities and income this also has the potential to increase impacts on the natural environment - affecting the attractiveness of particular areas – and to exacerbate current pressures on local services and infrastructure and conflicts between recreational and other land uses.

Many businesses and organisations in the sub-region – including the public sector - will find that climate change affects their premises through for example overheating and water ingress. Although service and knowledge-based industries will find this one of the major effects of climate change, impacts on manufacturing are likely to include costs associated with water abstraction in drought periods, with any loss of process efficiency or output that results. Some industries, for instance in the Food and Drink sector, will also need to respond to impacts of changes to agriculture and fisheries. The impacts of flooding on business, retail, manufacturing and distribution parks and innovation centres are also a consideration. However, manufacturing and advanced technology industries will benefit from business opportunities, and can position themselves to develop adaptation measures to some of the impacts identified in this study and elsewhere.

Increased demands placed on emergency services as a result of climate change – responding to for instance incidents of flooding, storm damage and disruption or increases in wildfires – will be a particular issue in North Yorkshire due to the inherently more vulnerable nature of rural transport and other infrastructure.

The principal transport routes through the sub-region will be most vulnerable to increased damage and disruption due to local and/or large-scale flooding, increasing maintenance and repair costs. Indirect costs will include those due to traffic and travel disruption along main arteries, such as the East Coast Main Line and the A1/A1(M). Networks will also continue to be subject to disruption caused by wind-related blockages and as temperatures rise more rural roads will experience surface melt, leading to damage

Longer growing seasons will mean that more roadside and trackside maintenance will be required, as will maintenance of other public and privately-owned sites, visitor attractions and venues, with impacts on resources and budgets.

Reservoirs within the sub-region will receive less water, placing demand on the Yorkshire Grid for supply as demand from domestic users increases due to the warmer climate. Although water treatment processes will be enhanced by rising temperatures, low flows in the sub-region’s watercourses could lead to greater pollution as effluent is less readily dispersed. Energy and telecommunications infrastructure is also principally susceptible to increased flood risk, with implications including loss of power to hospitals and emergency response units, and to pumping stations relied on by the Yorkshire Grid to maintain water supply.

Particular biodiversity and habitat assets will be affected by climate change, including blanket bog (on flat moorland) which is expected to dry and shrink in summer; winter rainfall may not be sufficient to maintain it. Heathland and moorland habitats are expected to change in composition and grassland, although expected to include more drought tolerant herbs and ruderals, is expected to increase.

Although there are expected to be reduced levels of cold-induced mortality and injury due to rising winter temperatures, the expected ageing population in the sub-region will place an increasing burden on rural health services. Increasing impacts of urban temperatures, especially amongst older residents and in urban areas, can also be expected, as can an increase in air pollution episodes and higher incidence of respiratory complaints. Hospitals and care homes across the sub-region may have increasing difficulty maintaining comfortable internal temperatures during heatwaves, making it harder to provide core services. Acute and chronic impacts on mental wellbeing are especially evident during and following flood events, which are expected to increase, and often persist far beyond the flood itself.

 

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West Yorkshire is by far the most urban of the sub-regions, including the major towns and cities of Leeds, Bradford, Wakefield, Halifax and Huddersfield. These account for a large proportion of the region’s working population, and by far the largest proportion of office-based businesses. More rural areas are found to the west of the sub-region, around Hebden Bridge. The wider Leeds City Region extends into North Yorkshire and there are also strong links outside the region with Manchester. As well as region-wide, and sector-specific impacts raised elsewhere, there are a number of key points which relate to the West Yorkshire sub-region.

Flooding events have occurred in the sub-region on a number of occasions in the recent past, including significant events in Todmorden and Hebden Bridge, Wakefield, Ilkley and Leeds and Haworth, largely as a result of flash flooding after heavy rainfall, but also from flooding of rivers and sewers. Although additional numbers of properties being at future risk is a concern, a larger issue is the likely increasing frequency of flooding of properties already identified as at-risk. The upland areas to the west will be at greater risk from river flooding, whilst increasing winter rainfall will increase foul and surface water sewer flooding.

Mine water outbreak from shallow unstable workings could be intensified by increased frequency of multi-day rainfall events. The Jackson Bridge discharge near Holmfirth has experienced several events in the past decade, causing short term release of contamination downstream.

Livestock management in extensive upland systems may experience greater difficulties with heat and drought stress, as well as a greater likelihood of injury from storms and related debris. Pest control is expected to be a more significant issue for farmers, with increased virulence and spread of pests and disease, combined with introductions of more exotic species, increasing the susceptibility of livestock to infection and disease.

The timing of farming events, including movements between upland and lowland, and lambing and calving, may need to change in response to the changing weather conditions and an extended pasture growing season. Where heavy rainfall or storms increase the likelihood of flooding or damage in stocked areas there may be an increased need for shelter or supplementary feeding.

Changing temperatures and drought stress, waterlogging and wind-throw, and changes in prevalence of pests and diseases, may change the natural composition of woodland but also increase the need for management. In more urbanised areas, or near significant infrastructure, tree management is likely to require greater resource to limit damage from falling trees and associated debris.

More domestic and overseas visitors are expected to visit over an extended peak period. This is likely have fewer negative impacts on local services and infrastructure in this more urban sub-region than in, for instance, North Yorkshire, although there will still be pockets where pressure on destinations enhances current problems.

Sports and other venues within the sub-region will have increasing difficulty managing grounds and playing surfaces, due to heightened wet-dry cycles between winter and summer. Crowd welfare and safety will require closer management during periods of extreme heat or storms, and there may more frequently be a need to limit attendance to, or to cancel, events such as festivals. Increased insurance and other costs will be associated with outdoor events as climate volatility increases.

Impacts on the sub-region’s manufacturing industries will be process-specific, although they will experience changes in demand, and also be susceptible to disruptions to the wider supply network and infrastructure. Limitations imposed on water use during drier summers may also affect process efficiency. There are likely to be opportunities associated with wider technical measures to tackle climate emissions and to facilitate adaptation.

The sub-region’s dominant service and knowledge-based industries will be principally affected by impacts on premises and employees, with the potential for employee discomfort and reduced productivity, and for increased damage to buildings through flash flooding, rainfall and temperatures. There will also be a significant impact of any disruptions to IT infrastructure on digital and service industries. These impacts will similarly affect the public sector, including schools and hospitals. Advanced technology companies and those associated with universities and advanced manufacturing will be presented with opportunities to develop adaptation measures to some of the impacts identified in this study and elsewhere.

Retail, another significant sector for the sub-region will experience similar impacts on premises and employee and customer comfort and mobility as addressed above, combined with changes in market demands and increased disruption of transport infrastructure and supply networks. Urban and retail park locations may also be more susceptible to the urban heat island effect, reducing their attractiveness, and to urban flooding. Logistics and distribution parks will be vulnerable to similar impacts. Conversely climate controlled stores and malls may experience greater visitor pressure during stormy or hot weather.

With expected increases in flooding it is likely that the emergency services, including the voluntary sector often relied on by communities, will become increasingly resource stretched. Any flooding of emergency service command and control centres, access roads and the electricity network will affect their ability to respond.

Much of West Yorkshire’s social housing stock will be vulnerable to climatic changes, although vulnerability will very much depend on its state of repair. Fuel poverty may decline during winter months, but this may replaced by high summer temperatures affecting elderly and vulnerable people. Wetter winters could also increase the occurrence of damp and mould, with associated effects on health. More frequent and severe flooding may increase requirements for temporary accommodation and reoccupation. This is likely to place an additional burden on Local Authority social services and on more informal carer networks and families.

The principal transport routes through the sub-region are the trans-Pennine routes which will be most vulnerable to increased disruption due to local and/or large-scale flooding. Especially during winter months this will result in direct damage (requiring maintenance and repair) and indirect damage due to disruption. Along some routes there is also likely to be an increase in localised embankment slippages, and networks will also continue to be subject to disruption from wind-related blockages

Extreme temperatures and heatwaves will also lead to increased frequency and duration of track-buckling on the rail network, problems with road surfaces, and consequent speed restrictions and delays. Increased temperatures will also increase discomfort for passengers in cars, buses, coaches and train carriages.

The sub-region’s energy and telecommunications, and water and wastewater, infrastructure is principally susceptible to increased flood risk associated with wetter winters; where substations, power stations and other facilities are affected by flooding power could be lost at a large number of households and businesses, including hospitals, emergency response units and pumping stations. Rising temperatures will also lead to greater sagging of overhead transmission lines, affecting power transmission.

The sub-region has a wide variety of habitats and as such the range of future impacts identified at the regional level apply, with the obvious exception of coastal and intertidal habitats.

Atmospheric ozone concentrations are expected to increase towards 2050 and combined with periods of high temperature could well lead to an increase in respiratory illness as air pollution events become more common and intense. The Pennines can also trap poor quality air in the urban areas of West Yorkshire during high pressure systems. Increasing road transport emissions, and substantial growth plans at Leeds-Bradford International Airport, will contribute to air quality problems.

Despite its affluence in areas, a large number of people in the sub-region live in vulnerable households and/or areas of deprivation. Heat stress and the impacts upon residents in urban centres have the potential to cause particular problems, and those living in areas of deprivation will be most severely impacted. Hospitals and care homes across the sub-region may find it increasingly difficult to provide their core services as rising internal temperatures placing patients under additional stress.

 

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The Humber sub-region covers a large area around the Humber Estuary, stretching north as far as the resort town of Bridlington, and incorporating areas of Lincolnshire and the Lincolnshire coast as far as Cleethorpes. As well as the significant urban centres of Kingston-upon-Hull and Scunthorpe, and industrial areas including chemicals and steelmaking along the estuary, there are large tracts of sparsely-populated agricultural land producing arable crops and being used to raise livestock, and in particular pigs. The Humber Ports account for a significant proportion of the UK’s seaborne import and export freight, and the ports of Hull and Grimsby are key national fishing centres.

The northern areas of the sub-region incorporate the Yorkshire Wolds, whilst the low-lying and coastal areas of the Humber Estuary are a significant national biodiversity resource, with a range of protected designations.

The flood history of the sub-region is dominated by events in Kingston-upon-Hull, where most recently intense rainfall overwhelmed drainage systems in 2007 causing extensive flooding. One in five homes was affected and 10,000 homes were evacuated. Damage to council properties exceeded £200 million.

There are significant river and tidal flood defences within the sub-region, including along the tidal reaches of most of the main rivers. Along the East Riding coastline most of the ‘defences’ are natural features, although raised defences are notably provided at Bridlington, Hornsea, Easingham and Withernsea. In light off future enhanced flooding from both river and sea these defences may need review, as well as greater management and maintenance.

Several of the sewer, and minor river, outfalls become tide-locked potentially leading to localised flooding. This is a significant problem in Kingston-upon-Hull, where 90% of the city is below the high tide level. In urban areas, particularly Hull, but including Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Bridlington and Beverley there will also be an increased likelihood of localised flooding due to stormwater overflow, especially during winter months.

The coastline is particularly vulnerable to cliff erosion and beach lowering, due to wave energy and sea level rise, and altered erosion and deposition within the estuary and at Spurn Point. Undefended sections of coast will also continue to erode and whilst this important process will contribute to the Humber Estuary’s dynamic response to sea level rise, it will lead to continued loss of agricultural and amenity land.

At Easington a principal component of the UK’s gas infrastructure is located on the cliff top. Although protected, as sea level, waves and rainfall increase over the next 50 years overtopping of defences, erosion of the backing cliffs, and flanking erosion could make the coastline more vulnerable.

The Chalk aquifer in the sub-region is important regionally but is already displaying early symptoms of hydrological stress, in particular during recent droughts, mainly due to sustained groundwater abstraction. Chalk is particularly susceptible to changes in groundwater levels and since many rivers and streams derive their water from groundwater spring flow (including 85% of the headwaters of the River Hull), future reductions in groundwater levels will not only threaten the groundwater resource but could also have important implications for river flow. Historic over-abstraction of the Chalk aquifer in the Hull area has also contributed to the intrusion of saline water from the estuary. Further reductions in groundwater level and increased drought could exacerbate this, although current management and abstraction rates mean these risks should be negligible.

Arable areas are expected to experience longer growing seasons and higher yields, at least in the medium term. Increased temperatures may also bring opportunities to grow new crops, or increase yields from crops currently growing under marginal conditions. There will be opportunities for farm diversification into biomass production – including to support biofuel production at facilities along the estuary - and in response to changing markets. However, the increased potential for summer drought may mean that increased irrigation is required to realise these yields, and limitations on water use may confound this. Livestock needs are another consideration, and in particular the pigs which form a substantial herd within the sub-region. In warmer, and in particular extremely hot, conditions animals may require supplementary water or housing.

Drought, erosion by wind and heavy rain, and the risks of salination from increased use of irrigators are all possible future concerns which may affect the productivity of land. Land quality may also be affected if flood events introduce contamination, including as a result of tidal incursion.

Climate change is also expected to increase the challenges posed by pests and diseases affecting arable crops and livestock. Any impacts on animal or crop welfare have consequent effects on the need for intervention and on the value of products. In extreme situations, and more likely in rural areas, there is also the potential for increased transmission of disease from livestock to humans. Problems associated with imported pests and diseases, and in particular new ‘exotic’ pest species, are a particular issue in the sub-region due to the large-scale movements associated with the Humber ports.

Fisheries, an historic and important industry in the sub-region, will also experience changes in yield as traditional catch species are replaced by warmer water species. Increases in Harmful Algal Blooms may affect local shellfish fisheries, and will also have implications for market fish and processing industries such as those in Hull and Grimsby.

The tourism industry is expected to experience increased demand; there are therefore opportunities for developing the tourism sector to accommodate increased numbers of domestic and overseas visitors and an extended peak season. This is expected to bring increased employment opportunities and income, but has the potential to increase impacts on the natural environment and on smaller towns north of the Humber. Increased pressure on destinations and on local services and infrastructure may also enhance current problems. Pollution from increased urban and flash flooding, as well as greater incidence of algal blooms, may affect the attractiveness of coastal towns such as Bridlington, with negative effects on tourist income.

Impacts on the sub-region’s major manufacturing centres will often be very process-specific, and further in-depth review will be required. Biologically-controlled systems may become more efficient as temperatures increase, but reductions in water availability in summer months may limit output where large amounts of water are required for industrial cooling or cleaning. There will also be knock-on impacts of changes to agriculture and fisheries, on which much of the food and drink manufacturing industry in the sub-region is dependent. The Food and Drink sector will also be particular affected by changes to treatment processes or product shelf-life induced by warmer temperatures, or to an increased prevalence of toxins and bacterial contamination particularly of shellfish.

Many businesses and organisations – including the public sector, advanced technology and service based industries - will find that the major effects of climate change are those associated with premises and employee comfort, as elsewhere. The impacts of flooding on business, retail, manufacturing and innovation centres are an important consideration in the Humber sub-region. The logistics sector is also extremely susceptible to climate impacts on transport infrastructure and any disruption to the operation of the ports, and will be increasingly susceptibility to flash flooding and water ingress. Possible spread of contamination is again a particular factor for the Food and Drink sector, and there will also be problems maintaining suitable temperatures in large warehouses. However manufacturing and advanced technology industries could also benefit from opportunities, and can position themselves to develop adaptation measures to some of the impacts identified in this study and elsewhere.

The sub-region’s professional and amenity venues will find it increasingly difficult to maintain suitable conditions during the summer. The reduced availability of water for irrigation will compound this, but increases in winter rainfall and overall extreme weather events will bring the opposite problem of waterlogging. Particularly at professional stadia (eg Cleethorpes and Hull) there will increasing difficulty managing grounds and playing surfaces, due to heightened wet-dry cycles between winter and summer. Crowd welfare and safety will require closer management during periods of extreme heat or storms, and there may more frequently be a need to limit attendance to, or to cancel, events. Weather volatility may also result in increased insurance and other costs.

With expected increases in flooding due to winter and extreme rainfall it is likely that all the emergency services, including the voluntary sector often relied on by communities, will become increasingly stretched in dealing with response and rescue operations. Any flooding of emergency service command and control centres, access roads and the electricity network will also affect the ability to respond. During the summer months, there is likely to be increased ambulance emergency response from the effects of drought and heat stress.

The vulnerability of the sub-region’s social housing stock will depend on its state of repair. Fuel poverty may decline during winter months, but this may replaced by high summer temperatures affecting elderly and vulnerable people. Wetter winters could also increase the occurrence of damp and mould, with associated effects on health, and more frequent and severe flooding may increase requirements for temporary accommodation and reoccupation. For coastal areas inundation and loss of homes and infrastructure could be a long term problem creating ‘refugees’ from areas that may become uninhabitable. These changes are likely to place an additional burden on Local Authority social services and on informal carer networks and families.

Sea level rise could also lead to increased frequency of flooding from the Humber across the rail line to Hull, especially in areas such as Brough, Hessle and Ferriby. Increased flows within rivers and the estuary will also enhance the potential for scour, potentially causing structural problems for bridge foundations. Increased coastal erosion could also jeopardise the rail line near Bridlington and roads near Withernsea and between Hornsea and Mappleton.

As with the wider region, the sub-region’s principal road and rail routes will be most vulnerable to increased disruption due to local and/or large-scale flooding causing direct and indirect damage (eg through disruption). Networks will also continue to be subject to wind-related disruption; this is likely to be marginally worse than the current situation. Flights to or from Humberside International Airport will also continue to sometimes be delayed or disrupted due to adverse wind conditions, although the number of snow-related incidents will decrease compared to the present day.

Summer temperatures and heatwaves will also affect road surfaces and cause increased frequency and duration of rail track-buckling, both of which will result in delays. Increased temperatures, and particularly summer extremes, will also heighten discomfort for passengers in cars, buses, coaches and train carriages.

Apart from erosion around the Easington Gas Terminal the sub-region’s energy and telecommunications infrastructure is principally susceptible to increased flood risk. Where infrastructure is affected by flooding, supply can be lost in homes and businesses, including critical operational buildings such hospitals, emergency response units and pumping stations.

In contrast to the three other sub-regions, parts of the Humber sub-region could experience significant future water resource issues. This is because some existing resources are already overcommitted and also because south of the Humber Estuary supply is provided by Anglian Water. Their operational area receives less rainfall than anywhere else in the country. Part of the sub-region to the north of the Humber and part of North Lincolnshire will however be served by the Yorkshire Grid.

As well as wider biodiversity impacts felt across the region, rising sea levels could alter the form and function of the Humber estuary with impacts on the distribution of waders and wildfowl and possible consequences for the designated status of the estuary itself. Coastal squeeze may also result in loss of brackish and freshwater wetlands, with similar implications.

Heat induced morbidity and mortality will increase, particularly in urban areas, as residents are exposed to higher average and extreme temperatures, and elevated levels of air pollution. Acute and chronic impacts on mental wellbeing will be particularly associated with fluvial, coastal or urban flooding. Hospitals and care homes, including mobile care services may find it increasingly difficult to provide core services as a result of increased internal temperatures and weather-related disruption. Restriction of such services is likely to be a greater concern in more rural areas. In common with other sub-regions, areas of deprivation will be the most severely impacted by the wide-ranging health impacts of climate change.

 

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South Yorkshire, containing the major regional towns of Sheffield, Rotherham, Doncaster and Barnsley, is a largely urban sub-region, although more rural areas are found to the west of Sheffield (into The Peak District National Park) and to the east of Doncaster and Rotherham where more land is used for agriculture.

The sub-region has been dominated by heavy and traditional industry. Despite declines in these sectors over recent years this remains the case, although logistics and distribution has a significant presence in the sub-region due to its transport links, and as elsewhere in the region the advanced technology and service industries are growing quickly.

The sub-region has experienced significant flooding in the past, and most notably in 2007 when Doncaster, Sheffield and Barnsley were the focus of unprecedented flooding which affected 2400 properties in the Doncaster and Lower Don catchment, 1,200 homes across Sheffield and more than 1,000 businesses (including the Meadowhall Shopping Centre, Hillsborough Football Stadium, and key industries). In addition the M1 near Rotherham was closed for 40 hours after the Ulley Reservoir filled to capacity and was close to breaching. Two thirds of reported flooded properties are believed to have been due to sewer and surface flooding. There will be an increased likelihood of urban areas in the sub-region experiencing localised flooding due to stormwater overflow, especially during winter months.

There are significant river flood defences within the sub-region, including on the Dearne, and upstream on the Rother. Further downstream there are raised defences along the full length of the Don through to the Humber Estuary. Future enhanced flooding will mean that these defences may need review, together with greater management and maintenance.

The Sheephouse Wood discharge near Stocksbridge (in 2002) provides one of the best examples of mine water outbreak events in the UK, and resulted in a section of the A616 being destroyed. Similar mine water discharges on the Coal Measures outcrop in the sub-region may be an increased risk due to future increases in intense rainfall.

Both arable and livestock farming occur, particularly to the east of the sub-region, and impacts will be similar to other sub-regions - although there is potential for increased crop yields there will be greater variability in water supply, and is likely to be more disruption to farming practices. Periods of extended drought will likely increase the need for greater crop irrigation, and water provision for livestock, potentially increasing competition between agricultural needs and domestic and industrial requirements and those of the wider habitats

The opportunity, and in the longer term need to grow new crops will be a benefit to the region. This opportunity could also include diversification into biomass production, or altered production in response to demand for locally-sourced food.

Increased flooding onto the lowlands to the east of the sub-region brings a higher risk of contamination of farmland, and subsequent effects on crop quality and viability, and on animal quality and health. Pests and diseases will also become an increasing problem in both arable and livestock systems, exacerbated by the closer proximity of this sub-region’s farmland to the Humber ports.

Increased tourist visitation and an extended peak season will bring opportunities to both urban and rural destinations in the sub-region, including visitors to the Peak District and to Sheffield and heritage destinations. In urban destinations any increased visitation should be easily managed, and should strengthen the visitor economy, but more rural areas may find it exacerbates current pressures on services and infrastructure.

The sub-region has a substantial number of golf clubs, and these as well as professional and amenity venues will find it increasingly difficult to maintain suitable playing surfaces during the summer. The reduced availability of water for irrigation will compound this, but increases in winter rainfall and overall extreme weather events will bring the opposite problem of waterlogging. Particularly at professional venues (eg Hillsborough) crowd welfare and safety will require closer management during periods of extreme heat or storms.

Impacts on the sub-region’s major manufacturing centres will often be very process-specific, and further in-depth review will be required. General impacts will include those associated with premises and employee comfort, as elsewhere, and likely changes in process efficiency, particularly in biologically controlled systems. Reduced water availability in summer months may limit manufacturing output where large amounts are required for industrial cooling or cleaning.

The sub-region’s more advanced manufacturing industries, together with the advanced technology sector and businesses associated with research and development, will be presented with opportunities associated with measures to tackle climate emissions, and to provide technical solutions to some of the adaptation requirements highlighted by this study and elsewhere.

Retail, another significant sector for the sub-region will experience similar impacts on premises and employee and customer comfort and mobility, as addressed elsewhere. There will also be changing market demands. Urban and retail park locations may be more susceptible to the urban heat island effect - although climate controlled stores and malls may experience increased visitor pressure during stormy or hot weather - and to urban and other flooding. For instance Meadowhall was inundated in 2007, causing the centre to be closed for almost a week. Logistics and distribution parks will also be vulnerable to urban flooding, potentially causing disruption to the businesses they support.

It is likely that the emergency services, including the voluntary sector often relied on by communities, will become increasingly stretched in dealing with response and rescue operations due to increased flooding. Any flooding of emergency service command and control centres, access roads and the electricity network will affect their ability to respond. During the summer months, there is likely to be increased ambulance emergency response from the effects of drought and heat stress.

Much of South Yorkshire’s social housing stock is pre-1980s, but its vulnerability to climate changes will very much depend on its state of repair. Fuel poverty may decline during winter months, but high summer temperatures are likely to affect elderly and vulnerable people. More frequent and severe flooding may well increase requirements for temporary accommodation and reoccupation, placing an additional burden on Local Authority social services and on more informal carer networks and families.

The principal road and rail routes through the sub-region will be most vulnerable to disruption due to flooding, especially during the winter, resulting in considerable damage to infrastructure and indirect economic effects due to disruption. Local road networks will also be vulnerable. The Sheffield Supertram is served with power from overhead cables, and although these are less likely to be affected by ice the slight increase in winter wind speeds could cause problems. Scheduled flights to or from Robin Hood Doncaster Sheffield Airport will also continue to experience delays and disruptions due to wind conditions, although the number of snow-related incidents will decrease.

Rising temperatures, and particularly extreme high temperatures, will increase discomfort for passengers in cars, buses, coaches and train carriages and could have implications for health.

The sub-region’s energy and telecommunications infrastructure, as well as its water and wastewater network, is principally susceptible to increased flood risk associated with wetter winters, exacerbated in urban areas by overwhelmed drainage. This has the potential to directly inundate water and wastewater treatment works. Where key facilities are affected by flooding this could result in loss of services to a large number of homes and businesses, including to critical services such as hospitals, emergency response units and to pumping stations relied on by the Yorkshire Grid to ensure continued water supply.

The sub-region has a wide variety of habitats and as such the range of future impacts identified at the regional level apply, with the obvious exception of coastal and intertidal habitats.

Heat induced morbidity and mortality may increase as residents in Doncaster, Barnsley, Rotherham and especially Sheffield are exposed to higher temperatures. As average temperatures rise the urban heat-island effect will be intensified and, coupled with the forecast growth in numbers of elderly people, will increase strain on health and welfare services. Hospitals and care homes, including mobile care services, may find it increasingly difficult to provide their services as a result of rising internal temperatures, particularly in more rural areas. Acute and chronic impacts on mental wellbeing will be particularly associated with flood events.

Air pollution episodes may be intensified by the local topography as the Peak District traps pollutants during anticyclonic (high pressure) weather systems. Health impacts are likely to be greater in areas of deprivation within Sheffield and Rotherham (including Herringthorpe, Greasbrough and Rawmarsh West wards).

 

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